Industrial,Economy,Analysis,of,Main,Pear-producing,Counties,in,Central,and,Western,Shandong,Province,(2011-2020)

Shuwei WEI　Xiaoyang WANG

AbstractThis paper selected five main producing counties of Yangxin， Guanxian， Feixian， Tengzhou and Licheng in central and western Shandong Province. Based on the basic economic data of pear industry from 2011 to 2020， the cultivation areas， yields， main cultivars， production costs and garden prices of pears in the main producing counties in the past 10 years were analyzed， so as to provide reference for the development of pear industry in Shandong Province.

Key wordsShandong province; Midwest; Pear; Industrial economy

Shandong Province has a long history of pear cultivation， and the pear industry plays an important role in promoting agricultural economic development and increasing farmers" income[1]. For a long time， Shandong pear industry has gradually formed three major pear producing areas， namely Jiaodong Peninsula， Northwest Shandong Plain and the mountain areas in central and southern Shandong， and formed distinct regional advantages. The five demonstration counties of Yangxin， Feixian， Guanxian， Tengzhou and Licheng are all located in the central and western regions of Shandong Province， and the soil， climate and other conditions are suitable for the development of the pear industry. At present， China"s economic development has entered a new normal[2]， under which the internal and external environment of agricultural development is undergoing profound changes， and the development of the pear industry is also facing new problems and challenges. This paper mainly analyzed the economic changes of the pear industry in the central and western regions of Shandong Province by taking the changes in pear planting area， yield， main cultivars， production cost and garden price in the past 10 years in the five demonstration counties as the breakthrough point， hoping to provide reference for the development of pear industry in our province.

Data Sources and Methods

The study analyzed the industrial economy of the five major pear-producing counties in central and western Shandong using the statistical basic data in 2011-2020 from Tai"an Comprehensive Experiment Station of the National Pear Industry System as the analysis data source by the comparative analysis method. Some data items were subjected to trend analysis using Excel.

Results and Analysis

Pear cultivation area and yield

Cultivation areaSince 2011， the cultivation area of pears in the five counties in central and western Shandong has experienced a process of first increasing and then decreasing. Before 2016， the cultivation area continued to rise， but after 2017， the cultivation area continued to decrease. In 2011， the cultivation area of pears in the five counties was 17 253 hm2. In 2014， it increased to 20 610 hm2， showing an increase of nearly 14.5% compared with 2012. By 2017， the area decreased to 18 087 hm2， and in 2020 to 15 920 hm2 （Fig. 1）. Compared with 2016， the area of pears in 2020 dropped by about 22.7%.

YieldFrom 2011 to 2020， the change trends of pear yield and cultivation area in the five main producing counties were basically the same， showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The yield of pear fruit reached its peak in 2015， then began to decrease in 2016， reached the lowest point in 2018， and then rebounded. The yield of pear fruit in 2020 decreased by 340 200 t compared with 2015， and 242 200 t compared with 2011.

Main cultivars

Since 2011， the main cultivars in the five counties had shown different trends. Among the five main producing counties， Yangxin County had the largest cultivation area. The first main cultivar was still Yali， but the area in 2020 was reduced by 1 733 hm2 compared with 2011; the area of the second main cultivar， Zaosu， had gradually shrunk， from the highest of 1 733 hm2 to about 667 hm2; and the area of the third main cultivar， Zhongli No.1， had dropped sharply and had been replaced by Xinli No.7， while Xinli No.7 had grown rapidly and had an area of 526.7 hm2. In Guanxian County， which had the second largest cultivation area， the area of the first and second main cultivars remained stable; and the third main cultivar changed from Xingao to Huangjin. The first main cultivar in Feixian County was still Zimu pear， but the area had dropped significantly; the areas of the second main cultivar Fengshui and the third main cultivar fluctuated greatly， and Fengshui once reached its peak of 1 000 hm2， but was only about 333 hm2 in 2020， and Huangjin reached 526.7 hm2 in 2015， but it had decreased rapidly since then; and Qiuyue pear had grown rapidly since 2018， and was close to 333 hm2 in 2020. The area of Dangshan pear， the first main cultivar in Tengzhou， and that of Yali， the second main cultivar， remained basically stable; the area of the third main cultivar， Zhongli No.1， decreased sharply; and the area of Huangjin pear increased rapidly， and had become the fourth main cultivar in 2020. Huangjin pear in Licheng District surpassed Xiufeng pear， becoming the first major cultivar， and Qieli pear became the third major cultivar.

Changes in production cost and garden price

Total costContinuously tracking the data of the five main producing counties in 2011-2020， the total production cost of pears was on the rise. Before 2018， the cost was below 60 000 yuan/hm2. From 2019， the production cost of pears exceeded 60 000 yuan/hm2. By 2020， the production cost of pears reached 71 257.5 yuan/hm2， showing an increase of 35.8% compared with 2011.

Labor costThe production cost of pears mainly includes land rent， labor cost， fertilizers， pesticides and agricultural tools. Land rent did not changed much in the 10 years， basically maintained at about 1 000 yuan， and its proportion in the production cost was relatively small， maintained at about 10%. The proportion of labor cost showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. Since 2016， labor cost had gradually increased， and their proportion had gradually increased， accounting for 40% to 50% of the total cost in 2020. The proportion of material and service cost had basically changed little， remaining between 50% and 60%.

Garden price

The garden prices of the top three main cultivars in each county were averaged to obtain the average garden price for comparison. The results showed that from 2011 to 2018， the garden price of pears did not change much overall， but after 2018， the garden price increased overall. Comparing the prices of the five main producing counties horizontally， the average garden prices in Licheng， Feixian and Tengzhou increased significantly， while those in Yangxin and Guanxian did not changed much. Among them， the average garden price in Licheng in 2020 was 196.29% higher than that in 2011， showing the largest increase， but Yangxin"s garden price dropped by 11% compared with 2011， and the garden price in Guanxian County increased by 48.15%. Different counties and districts showed unbalanced development.

Discussion and Conclusions

The yield per unit area is reduced， and the development mode needs to be changed in the future

From 2010 to 2020， the cultivation area and yield of pears in the five main producing counties in central and western Shandong experienced a process of first increasing and then decreasing. Compared with the peak in 2016， the pear planting area in 2020 dropped by about 22.7%， and the pear yield in 2020 decreased by 340 200 t compared with 2015. Since 2011， the change trends of pear yield and cultivated area in the five main producing counties were basically the same， showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The yield of pear fruit in 2020 decreased by 340 200 t compared with 2015， and decreased by 242 200 t compared with 2011， which was closely relative to the extensive development of pear production in the early stage， and the production capacity of agricultural products is generally overcapacity at present[2]. China has entered a new era of high-quality agricultural development， and the focus of production is gradually changing from "yield" to "quality" and "safety"， and the production method is gradually changing from labor-intensive to mechanized， simplified， standardized and modernized. Improving the quality of pear fruit and improving economic benefits have become the current priority. With the adjustment of development mode， policies and management， the pear planting area in Shandong province has declined， but the base is still large， and there is still a lot of room for optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure.

The variety structure has been improved， and the breeding and promotion of new varieties still needs to be strengthened

Since 2011， the structure of pear varieties in the five main producing counties has been improved to a certain extent. The cultivation area of new varieties such as ‘Xinli No.7’ and ‘Qiuyue’ has increased significantly， but the proportion of late-ripening varieties is still relatively high. The first main cultivars of Yangxin， Guanxian， Feixian and Tengzhou in the 5 counties are still traditional local cultivars such as ‘Yali’， ‘Dangshan pear’ and ‘Zimu pear’， while the ratio of modern bred excellent new varieties is lower. China has achieved remarkable results in the breeding of new pear varieties[3]， but there are few new varieties with excellent comprehensive traits in production， especially the lack of excellent varieties with strong competitiveness in the international market. Hence， the breeding and promotion of new varieties still needs to be strengthened.

The production cost is rising， and there is an urgent need to develop and promote light and simplified models and technologies

From 2011 to 2020， the total production cost of pear fruit was on the rise， especially the labor cost， which rose significantly， and its proportion gradually increased. By 2020， it had accounted for 40% to 50% of the total cost. The traditional cultivation mode of pear orchards is complicated in management， labor-intensive， and low in production efficiency and benefits. With the loss of young and middle-aged laborers in rural areas， the aging of fruit producers and the rise of labor cost， to solve the contradiction between labor shortage and traditional cultivation management methods， it is urgent to carry out the research and development and promotion of simplified， cost-saving and efficiency-enhancing production techniques in pear orchards.

There are large differences in the prices of different main producing counties， and post-harvest commercialization， intensive processing and brand building need to be strengthened

After 2018， the overall garden price had increased， but the garden prices in different production areas were quite different. The average garden price in Licheng in 2020 increased by 196.29% compared with 2011， but Yangxin"s garden price in 2020 decreased by 11% compared with 2011. Different counties and districts showed unbalanced development， which is related to the uneven economic development in different regions， and also closely related to postharvest commercialization， intensive processing and lack of brands. The degree of commercialization of foreign pear fruit exceeds 85%， while the degree of post-harvest commercialization of pears in China is low. Moreover， there are few intensively processed products， and there is a lack of brands. In order to achieve post-harvest value addition， enhance competitiveness and improve the space for industrial development， it is necessary to improve the level of post-harvest commercialization， research and develop deep-processed products， strengthen pear brand building， and promote the healthy development of the pear industry.

References

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137-140. （in Chinese）.

[2] ZHANG SL， XIE ZH. Current status， trends， main problems and the suggestions on development of pear industry in China[J]. Journal of Fruit Science， 2019， 36（08）：
1067-1072. （in Chinese）.

[3] WANG WH， WANG GP， TIAN LM， et al. Fruit scientific research in New China in the past 70 years：
Apple[J]. Journal of Fruit Science， 2019， 36（10）：
1273-1282. （in Chinese）.

Editor：
Yingzhi GUANG Proofreader：
Xinxiu ZHU