美国州长财政政策报告
来源：银行招聘 发布时间：2020-10-24 点击：
oing
into
2020,
the
U nited
St ates
was
in its
11th
year
of
economic
expansion
and state
go v ernments
were
enjo ying
robust rev enue
and
spending
gro wth.
Then CO VID-19
hit
and
triggered
a
deep
reces -
sion.
St ate
go v ernments
hav e
seen
their
projected
rev enues decline
and
hav e
st ar ted
trimming
spending
to
k eep
their 2021
budgets
balanced.
Some
st ates
had
accumulated
large rain y
day
funds
and
were
prepared
for
the
do wnturn,
but other
st ates
hav e
been
o v er spending,
accumulating
debt, and
saving
little
for
the
rain y
day
that
has
no w
arriv ed.
That
is
the
backdrop
to
this
year’s
15th
biennial
ftscal repor t
card
on
the
go v ernor s,
which
ex amines
state
budget actions
since
2018.
It
uses
st atistical
data
to
grade
the
go v - ernors
on
their
t ax
and
spending
records—go v ernors
who hav e
restrained
t ax es
and
spending
receiv e
higher
grades, while
those
who
hav e
subst antially
increased
t ax es
and spending
receiv e
lo wer
grades.
F our
go v ernors
were
a warded
an
A
on
this
repor t : Chris
Sununu
of
N ew
Ham pshire,
Kim
Re ynolds
of
Io wa,
P ete
Rick etts
of
N ebrask a,
and
Mark
Gordon
of
W yoming. Sev en
go v ernors
were
a warded
an
F:
Ralph
N or tham of
Virginia,
Andrew
Cuomo
of
N ew
Y ork ,
Gretchen Whitmer
of
Michigan,
Phil
Murph y
of
N ew
Jer se y ,
J.
B. Pritzk er
of
Illinois,
K ate
Bro wn
of
Oregon,
and
Jay
Inslee of
W ashington.
This
repor t
ex amines
the
widely
var ying
t ax
and spending
choices
that
go v ernors
hav e
made
in
recent year s.
It
discusses
way s
that
st ates
can
respond
to
today’s budget
challenges,
including
t apping
rev enues
from marijuana
legalization
and
cutting
costs
by
prohibiting public-sector
collectiv e
bargaining.
The
repor t
also
de - scribes
ho w
st ates
can
prepare
for
future
do wnturns
by building
large
rain y
day
funds
and
creating
st able
and pro-gro wth
t ax
bases.
With
the
2020
health
crisis
and
recession,
go v ernors across
the
nation
are
facing
tough
ftscal
choices.
Ho wev er , the
need
for
restraint
and
reco v er y
pro vides
an
oppor tu - nity
for
go v ernors
to
prune
lo w -value
spending
from
state budgets
and
to
pur sue
growth-enhancing
t ax
reforms.
Chris
Edwards
is
director of
tax
policy studies
at
the Cato
Institute
a nd editor
of
www .DownsizingGovernment. org .
David
K emp
is
a
re - search
associate
at
the Cato
Institute .
o v ernors
play
a
k ey
role
in
state
ftscal policy .
The y
propose
budgets,
recom - mend
t ax
changes,
and
sign
or
v eto
t ax and
spending
bills.
When
the
econom y
is growing,
go v ernors
can
use
rising
reve -
nues
to
expand
programs
or
the y
can
return
extra
rev enues to
the
public
through
t ax
cuts.
When
the
econom y
is
st ag - nant
and
budget
deftcits
appear ,
go v ernors
can
respond
by raising
t ax es
or
trimming
spending.
This
repor t
grades
go v ernors
on
their
ftscal
policies from
a
limited-go v ernment
per spectiv e.
Go v ernors
receiv - ing
an
A are
those
who
hav e
cut
t ax es
and
spending
the most,
whereas
go v ernors
receiving
an
F hav e
raised
t ax es and
spending
the
most.
The
grading
mechanism
is
based on
sev en
variables:
two
spending
variables,
one
rev enue variable,
and
four
t ax-rate
variables.
Cato
has
used
the same
methodology
on
its
ftscal
repor t
cards
since
2008.
The
results
are
dat a-driv en.
The y
account
for
t ax
and spending
actions
that
af fect
short-term
budgets
in
the st ates.
Ho wev er ,
the y
do
not
account
for
longer-term
or structural
changes
that
go v ernors
may
mak e,
such
as
re - forms
to
state
pension
plans.
Thus,
the
results
pro vide
one measure
of
ho w
ftscally
conser vativ e
each
go v ernor
is,
but the y
do
not
reflect
all
the
ftscal
actions
that
go v ernors
mak e. T ax
and
spending
data
for
the
repor t
come
from the
N ational
Association
of
St ate
Budget
Of ftcer s,
the
N ational
Conference
of
St ate
Legislatures,
the
T ax F oundation,
the
budget
agencies
of
each
st ate,
and
man y new s
ar ticles.
The
data
co v er
the
period
Januar y
2018
to A ugust
2020,
which
was
mainly
a
period
of
strong
budget expansion
before
the
recession
began. 1
The
repor t
rates 47
go v ernor s.
It
ex cludes
the
go v ernors
of
Kentucky
and Mississippi
because
the y
hav e
been
in
of ftce
only
a
brief time,
and
it
ex cludes
the
go v ernor
of
Alask a
because
of peculiarities
in
that
st ate’s
budget.
The
next
section
discusses
the
highest-scoring
go v er - nor s
and
some
dif ferences
between
the
two
political
par - ties.
Af ter
that,
the
repor t
ex amines
ftscal
trends
in
the st ates,
including
spending
gro wth
rates
and
new
sources of
rev enue
that
st ates
are
t apping.
Subsequent
sections
look
at
way s
that
st ates
can
re - duce
budget
gaps
during
the
current
do wnturn
and
better prepare
for
future
do wnturns.
St ates
can
legalize
and
t ax marijuana
to
raise
rev enues.
St ates
can
end
public-sector collectiv e
bargaining
to
reduce
costs.
St ates
can
begin building
large
rain y
day
funds
when
the
econom y
returns to
gro wth.
And
st ates
can
reform
their
t ax
codes
to
create st able
rev enue
bases
less
susceptible
to
declines
during recessions.
Appendix
A discusses
the
methodology
used
to
grade the
go v ernor s.
Appendix
B
pro vides
summaries
of
the
fts - cal
records
of
the
47
go v ernors
included
in
the
repor t.
T
Main R esults
able
1
presents
the
o v erall
grades
for
the go v ernor s.
Scores
ranging
from
0
to
100 were
calculated
for
each
go v ernor
on
the basis
of
sev en
t ax
and
spending
variables.
Scores
closer
to
100
indicate
go v ernors who
fav ored
smaller-go v ernment
policies.
The
numerical scores
were
con v er ted
to
the
letter
grades
A to
F .
The
following
four
go v ernors
receiv ed
grades
of
A:
y
Cftris
Sununu
has
led
N ew
Ham pshire
as
go v ernor since
2017
af ter
a
career
as
an
engineer
and
busi - ness
o wner .
Sununu
has
defended
N ew
Ham pshire’s st atus
as
a
lo w-t ax
state
and
k ept
general
funding spending
close
to
flat
in
recent
year s.
While
neigh - boring
Massachusetts
im posed
a
costly
payroll
t ax
to fund
a
new
paid
leav e
program,
Sununu
has
twice v etoed
such
a
plan
in
his
st ate.
He
said
a
payroll
t ax is
“an
ef fectiv e
income
t ax,”
which
w ould
“destro y the
N ew
Ham pshire
advant age.” 2
Sununu
also
cut the
rates
of
the
st ate’s
two
main
business
t ax es
and defended
the
cuts
from
legislativ e
ef for ts
to
undo
them.
The
go v ernor
is
proud
that
N ew
Ham pshire is
top-rated
on
economic
freedom
and
has
w ork ed hard
to
k eep
it
that
way. 3
y
Kim
R eynolds
was
a
state
senator
and
lieutenant
go v ernor
of
Io wa
before
assuming
of ftce
as
go v ernor in
2017 .
She
has
translated
her
stated
beliefs
in
limit - ed
go v ernment
and
per sonal
responsibility
into
fairly lean
state
budgeting
and
the
pur suit
of
t ax
reform. She
signed
into
la w
a
major
reform
in
2018
that
cut cor porate
and
individual
income
t ax
rates,
broadened online
sales
t ax
collections,
and
reduced
t ax es
o v erall by
more
than
$300
million
a
year .
Re ynolds
proposed fur ther
t ax-rate
cuts
in
2020,
but
the
recession
and health
crisis
hav e
put
those
reforms
on
hold.
y
Pete
Ric ft etts
is
an
entrepreneur
and
former
cor po -
rate
ex ecutiv e.
Since
t aking
of ftce
as
N ebrask a
go v - ernor
in
2015,
he
has
pur sued
income
t ax
reforms, fended
off
t ax-increase
proposals,
and
held
general fund
spending
to
2.8
percent
annual
av erage
gro wth. Rick etts
signed
into
la w
an
income
t ax
cut
in
2018
that will
sav e
N ebrask ans
more
than
$250
million
a
year .
Fiscal
P olicy
R eport
Card
on
America ’ s
Governors
2020
He
has
proposed
fur ther
reforms
to
cut
individual and
cor porate
income
t ax
rates
and
signed
into
la w property
t ax
relief
legislation
in
2020.
y
Mar ft
Gordon
experienced
the
boom-bust
pat -
tern
of
W yoming
ftnances
as
state
treasurer ,
and
he
no w
manages
the
state
budget
as
go v ernor
since 2019.
Ev en
before
the
nation wide
recession,
Gordon began
trimming
state
spending
as
rev enues
in
the energy-dependent
state
fell.
He
has
not
suppor t - ed
ef for ts
in
the
legislature
to
im pose
a
cor porate
Main
R esults
income
t ax,
which
w ould
undermine
W yoming’s ability
to
rebuild
its
econom y
by
attracting
people and
businesses
as
a
hav en
free
from
income
t ax ation.
All
the
go v ernors
receiving
a
grade
of
A in
this
year’s repor t
are
R epublicans,
and
all
the
go v ernors
receiving an
F are
Democrats.
There
hav e
been
some
high-scoring Democrats
in
past
Cato
ftscal
repor ts,
but
R epublican go v ernors
tend
to
focus
more
on
t ax
cuts
and
spending
re - straint
than
do
Democrats.
The
biennial
Cato
repor t
has
used
the
same
grading method
since
2008.
R epublican
and
Democratic
go v ernor s, respectiv ely ,
hav e
had
av erage
scores
of
55
and
46
(2008), 55
and
47
(2010),
57
and
43
(2012),
57
and
42
(2014),
54
and
43
(2016),
and
55
and
41
(2018).
The
pattern
continues
in
the
2020
repor t.
This
time, R epublican
and
Democratic
go v ernors
had
av erage
scores of
56
and
45.
R epublicans
receiv ed
higher
scores
than Democrats,
on
av erage,
on
both
spending
and
t ax es,
al - though
the
R epublican
advantage
on
t ax es
was
greater than
on
spending,
which
was
also
the
case
in
prior
repor ts. When
the
econom y
is
growing
and
state
cof fer s
are ftlling
up,
Democrats
tend
to
increase
spending,
while R epublicans
tend
to
both
increase
spending
and
cut
t ax es. During
economic
do wnturns,
Democratic
go v ernors
of - ten
pur sue
t ax
increases
to
balance
their
budgets,
while R epublicans
put
greater
focus
on
spending
restraint.
We will
see
whether
that
pattern
holds
as
go v ernors
and
leg - islatures
face
tough
decisions
as
the y
w ork
to
close
large
budget
gaps
in
the
months
ahead.
F
Fiscal
P olicy
Developments
igure
1
sho w s
state
general
fund
spending since
2000,
based
on
data
from
the
N ational Association
of
St ate
Budget
Of ftcer s (NASBO). 4
Af ter
spending
fell
during
the recession
a
decade
ago,
state
budgets
grew
strongly
until
earlier
this
year .
General
fund
spending grew
at
an
annual
av erage
rate
of
4.1
percent
between
2010 and
2020,
including
increases
of
5.5
percent
in
2019
and
5.8
percent
in
2020.
The
largest
shares
of
general
fund spending
are
for
K–12
education
(36
percent),
Medicaid (20
percent),
and
higher
education
(10
percent).
NASBO’s
most
recent
state
sur v ey
in
June
found
that the
nation’s
go v ernors
had
proposed
to
increase
spending in
ftscal
2021
a
combined
2.8
percent.
We
used
the
June data
in
this
repor t
because
the y
are
com parable
across
the st ates
and
reflect
parallel
actions
t ak en
by
the
go v ernors
in proposing
budgets
for
the
coming
ftscal
year .
N ote
that
for 46
of
the
50
st ates,
ftscal
years
run
July
to
June. 5
Ho wev er ,
the
recession
has
reduced
projected
rev enues, prom pting
man y
st ates
to
adjust
spending
do wn ward
for
2021 .
Go v ernors
and
legislator s
hav e
begun
t aking
t ax
and spending
actions
to
rebalance
their
budgets
and
will
con - tinue
to
do
so
in
coming
months.
During
the
last
recession, st ates
passed
a
slew
of
t ax
increases
and
the y
cut
general fund
spending
10
percent
between
2008
and
2010.
A
September
sur v ey
of
37
st ates
by
the
N ational Conference
of
St ate
Legislatures
found
that
rev enues
are estimated
to
be
do wn
10
percent
in
2021
com pared
with pre-crisis
projections. 6
Projections
by
the
T ax
F oundation and
T ax
P olicy
Center
sho w
similar
projected
declines. 7 N ote
that
the
percent age
declines
w ould
be
less
when
com - pared
with
the
2019
rev enue
tot als.
T o
reliev e
budget
pressures,
the
st ates
hav e
st ar ted
t ap - ping
their
rain y
day
funds,
and
the y
hav e
receiv ed
hundreds of
billions
of
dollar s
in
emergency
aid
from
the
federal
go v - ernment.
St ate
policymak er s
should
also
cut
spending
and rescind
planned
spending
increases.
The y
should
view
the do wnturn
as
an
oppor tunity
to
prune
ex cesses
af ter
a
de - cade
of
gro wth
and
to
ftnd
way s
to
increase
efftciency ,
as
pri - vate
businesses
do
during
recessions.
Some
st ates
will
lik ely
pur sue
t ax
increases
in
com - ing
months,
as
man y
st ates
did
during
the
last
recession. Indeed,
ev en
during
the
recent
expansion,
state
go v ern - ments
enacted
net
o v erall
t ax
increases
ev er y
year
from 2016
to
2020. 8
Cigarette
t ax
increases
hav e
been
popular with
legislator s,
although
the
pace
of
increases
has
slo wed as
t ax
rates
hav e
reached
high
lev els. 9
Gasoline
t ax
increas - es
also
continue
to
be
popular
with
legislator s,
with
31 st ates
increasing
their
rates
since
2013. 10
St ate
go v ernments
are
turning
to
new
sources
of
rev - enue.
Prior
to
2018,
businesses
were
generally
not
required to
collect
online
sales
t ax es
unless
the y
had
a
ph y sical
pres - ence
in
a
customer’s
st ate.
But
a
U .S.
Supreme
Cour t
rul - ing
that
year ,
South
Dako t a
v.
W a yf air ,
eliminated
the
ph y si - cal
presence
rule,
paving
the
way
for
st ates
to
aggressively expand
sales
t ax
collections
from
out-of-st ate,
or
remote, seller s.
N early
all
st ates
no w
require
remote
sales
t ax
col - lections,
although
the y
hav e
typically
created
a
$100,000 ex em ption
for
seller s
with
limited
sales
in
a
st ate. 11
Online sales
are
currently
16
percent
of
o v erall
U .S.
ret ail
sales. 12
A
few
st ates
are
considering
“digit al
adver tising
t ax - es,”
which
w ould
land
on
the
estimated
gross
rev enues of
online
adver tiser s
in
a
st ate.
Such
t ax es
w ould
be
com - plex
and
are
of
dubious
legality . 13
Maryland
Go v ernor Larr y
Hogan
v etoed
such
a
t ax
earlier
this
year ,
which w ould
hav e
raised
about
$250
million. 14
P olicymak er s
in N ebrask a
and
N ew
Y ork
hav e
also
considered
im posing these
t ax es. 15
Gambling
is
a
growing
source
of
t ax
rev enue.
In
2018, the
Supreme
Cour t
in
Mur phy
v.
N ational Collegiate
Athletic Association
o v er turned
a
1992
federal
la w
that
had
banned spor ts
betting
ex cept
in
a
few
st ates. 16
T oday ,
at
least
20 st ates
hav e
enacted
la w s
allo wing
spor ts
betting
and
t ax - ing
it. 17
In
2020,
for
ex am ple,
Michigan
legalized
spor ts betting
and
im posed
a
t ax
of
8.4
percent
on
gross
bet - ting
receipts,
and
it
also
legalized
internet
gaming
and im posed
a
t ax
on
gross
receipts
of
up
to
28
percent. 18
I n July ,
Louisiana
enacted
a
la w
allo wing
parishes
to
im - pose
an
8
percent
t ax
on
the
net
rev enue
of
online
fant asy spor ts
betting
contests,
which
had
recently
been
legal - ized. 19
A
growing
number
of
st ates
are
mandating
that
pri - vate
em plo yer s
pro vide
paid
leav e,
including
California,
Connecticut,
Massachusetts,
N ew
Jer se y ,
N ew
Y ork ,
Oregon, Rhode
Island,
and
W ashington
St ate. 20
The
new
programs are
all
ftnanced
by
payroll
t ax es
on
either
em plo yer s
or
em - plo yees,
but
both
approaches
reduce
af ter-tax
wages
o v er the
long
term.
Three
go v ernors
hav e
signed
these
expensiv e programs
into
la w
since
2018—N ed
Lamont
of
Connecticut, Charlie
Bak er
of
Massachusetts,
and
K ate
Bro wn
of Oregon—and
their
scores
suf fered
on
this
repor t
because
of the
large
t ax
increases
the y
im posed.
We
t ak e
all
t ax
actions
into
account
in
grading
the go v ernors
in
this
repor t.
Some
actions
broaden
t ax
bases in
sensible
way s
that
im pro v e
neutrality ,
but
go v ernors should
use
the
resulting
rev enue
increases
to
reduce
mar - ginal
t ax
rates
and
fur ther
im pro v e
economic
efftciency . R ev enue-neutral
t ax
reforms
that
include
reductions
in top
income
and
sales
t ax
rates
are
scored
fav orably
in
this repor t.
In
the
following
subsections,
we
discuss
some
of
the
t ax and
rev enue
options
that
state
policymak er s
can
pur sue
to balance
their
budgets
during
the
current
do wnturn,
and
we ex amine
reforms
to
mak e
state
ftnances
more
st able
o v er
the longer
term.
LEG ALIZE
AND
T AX
MARIJUANA
R ecreational
marijuana
is
no w
legal
in
Alask a,
California, Colorado,
Illinois,
Maine,
Massachusetts,
Michigan,
N e- vada,
Oregon,
V ermont,
W ashington
St ate,
and
the
District of
Columbia.
F our
other
st ates—Arizona,
Mont ana,
N ew Jer se y ,
and
South
Dak ot a—hav e
measures
on
the
ballot
in N o v ember
to
legalize
recreational
marijuana.
Virginia
un - der
Go v ernor
Ralph
N or tham
decriminalized
marijuana
in 2020
and
may
soon
legalize
it. 21
Rhode
Island’s
Go v ernor Gina
Raimondo
has
proposed
legalizing
marijuana
in
her st ate. 22
In
Canada,
recreational
marijuana
has
been
legal since
2018.
One
incentiv e
for
st ates
to
legalize
marijuana
is
to
raise t ax
rev enues.
Most
of
the
st ates
with
legal
recreational mark ets
im pose
ex cise
t ax es
on
the
ret ail
price,
which range
from
10
percent
to
37
percent. 23
N umerous
st ates im pose
t ax es
on
gro wer s,
usually
in
addition
to
ret ail t ax es.
California,
for
ex am ple,
im poses
a
15
percent
t ax
on the
ret ail
sales
price
plus
t ax es
on
gro wer s
based
on
plant weight.
Illinois
t ax es
marijuana
based
on
THC
content.
Some
st ates
im pose
their
regular
ret ail
sales
t ax es
on
top of
these
product-speciftc
t ax es.
Colorado
has
the
longest
experience
with
a
legal
rec - reational
marijuana
mark et.
It
im poses
a
15
percent
re - t ail
t ax
and
a
15
percent
wholesale
t ax
on
the
product.
In 2019,
the
state
raised
$263
million,
which
was
2.1
percent of
the
st ate’s
general
fund
rev enues. 24
T ot al
general
fund rev enues
for
the
50
st ates
in
2020
were
$913
billion,
so
if all
st ates
legalize
recreational
marijuana
and
raise
rela - tively
the
same
amount
as
Colorado,
the
tot al
w ould
be about
$19
billion
annually . 25
Ho wev er ,
st ates
should
be
careful
not
to
im pose
heavy t ax es
or
regulations
on
marijuana
because
that
w ould harm
industr y
entrepreneur s,
suppress
go v ernment
rev - enues,
and
encourage
the
sur vival
of
a
large
black
mar - k et. 26
Marijuana
demand
is
responsiv e
to
t ax ation.
One em pirical
study
found
that
the
“medium-run
elasticity
of demand
for
marijuana
is
higher
than
the
consensus
esti - mates
for
cigarettes
or
gasoline.” 27
U nfor tunately ,
a
num - ber
of
st ates
appear
to
be
im posing
ex cessiv e
t ax es
and regulations,
and
raising
only
a
fraction
of
expected
rev - enues
while
fueling
black
mark et
sales. 28
How
should
marijuana
t ax
rev enues
be
used?
One
op - tion
is
to
use
them
to
reduce
cor porate
income
t ax es,
which are
highly
inef ftcient
sources
of
rev enue. 29
Another
option during
the
recession
is
to
use
marijuana
t ax
rev enues
to help
close
state
budget
gaps.
Then,
as
the
econom y
reco v - ers,
st ates
could
channel
marijuana
t ax es
into
rain y
day funds
to
help
prepare
for
the
next
do wnturn.
If
a
state
raised about
2
percent
of
its
general
fund
rev enues
from
marijua - na
t ax es,
it
could
build
a
hef ty
rain y
day
fund
o v er
the
next economic
expansion.
Currently ,
N evada’s
10
percent
ret ail sales
t ax
on
marijuana
goes
into
its
rain y
day
fund,
but
other st ates
use
the
rev enues
to
fund
new
spending. 30
The
federal
go v ernment
should
t ak e
steps
to
normal - ize
marijuana
mark ets
by
remo ving
the
product
from
the list
of
Schedule
1
drugs,
legalizing
inter state
commerce in
the
product,
allo wing
for
normal
banking
transactions for
the
industr y ,
and
allo wing
marijuana
businesses
to deduct
expenses
on
t ax
returns
as
other
businesses
do. By
legalizing
the
industr y ,
the
federal
go v ernment
w ould help
state
go v ernments
con v er t
black
mark ets
to
normal mark ets
and
boost
state
t ax
rev enues.
BAN
COLLECTIVE
BARG AINING
T O CUT COST S
The
go v ernment
w orkforce
is
heavily
unionized.
In 2019,
35
percent
of
state
and
local
go v ernment
w ork er s were
member s
of
labor
unions,
which
was
far
higher
than the
private-sector
union
share
of
6
percent. 31
Most
public school
teachers
and
a
large
majority
of
of ftcer s
in
big
city police
departments
are
co v ered
by
collectiv e
bargaining agreements. 32
The
union
share
in
state
and
local
go v ernment
w ork - forces
varies
widely—from
less
than
10
percent
in
N or th Carolina
to
73
percent
in
N ew
Y ork . 33
U nion
shares
are
re - lated
to
state
rules
on
collectiv e
bargaining.
Three-quar ter s of
the
st ates
hav e
com pulsor y
collectiv e
bargaining
for
at least
some
state
and
local
w ork ers,
usually
police,
teacher s, and
ftreftghter s. 34
At
the
other
end
of
the
spectrum,
N or th Carolina
prohibits
collectiv e
bargaining
in
go v ernment altogether ,
as
did
Virginia
until
recently . 35
The
rest
of
the st ates
either
prohibit
collectiv e
bargaining
in
some
parts
of go v ernment
or
hav e
no
st atewide
mandates.
U nion
rules
for
public
em plo yees
changed
in
2018
when the
U .S.
Supreme
Cour t
decided
Janus
v.
American
F ederation of
S t ate,
County,
and
Municipal
Em ployees
(AFSCME).
The cour t
found
that
public
em plo yees
cannot
be
forced
to
pay agency
fees
to
a
w orkplace
union
as
a
condition
of
em plo y - ment.
Ho wev er ,
go v ernments
can
still
im pose
collectiv e
bar - gaining
agreements,
which
are
monopoly
structures
that restrict
w ork er
freedom
and
undermine
efftciency
and
ac - count ability . 36
Go v ernment
labor
unions
are
in
the
spotlight
in
2020 because
of
concerns
about
police
misconduct.
The
killing of
George
Flo yd
by
a
Minneapolis
police
of ftcer
with
a
his - tor y
of
misconduct
highlights
ho w
collectiv e
bargaining creates
barrier s
to
disciplining
and
ftring
bad
of ftcer s.
In
the wak e
of
Flo yd’s
killing,
the
mayor
of
Minneapolis
said
that the
“elephant
in
the
room”
on
police
reform
is
“the
police union,
the
contract
associated
with
that
union,
and
then
the arbitration
that
ultimately
is
necessar y .” 37
Ev en
when
bad
of ftcer s
are
ftred,
a
W all
S treet
Journal anal - y sis
found
that
it
is
common
under
collectiv e
bargaining for
arbitrator s
to
reinstate
them. 38
In
Minnesot a,
“of ftcer s who
are
ftred
for
misconduct
or
charged
with
criminal
be - havior
of ten
end
up
back
on
the
force,”
the
Journal found. 39 N umerous
studies
hav e
found
that
collectiv e
bargaining
is
associated
with
higher
rates
of
police
misconduct
and
with rules
that
undermine
account ability . 40
Similar
problems
are found
in
other
unionized
public-sector
jobs.
The
layof f
and ftring
rate
of
state
and
local
w ork er s
is
only
about
one-third the
rate
in
the
private
sector . 41
Labor
unions
also
raise
go v ernment
costs,
which
poli - cymak er s
should
consider
as
the y
struggle
to
close
budget gaps. 42
Half
of
the
$3
trillion
in
tot al
state
and
local
go v ern - ment
spending
in
2019
was
for
em plo yee
com pensation,
so cutting
these
costs
w ould
go
a
long
way
to
balancing
state budgets. 43
N ote
that
29
percent
of
state
spending
consists of
grants
to
local
go v ernments
for
schools
and
other
activi - ties,
so
labor
cost
savings
in
local
go v ernments
w ould
also reduce
state
go v ernment
costs. 44
In
state
go v ernments
nation wide,
union
member
wages av eraged
19
percent
more
than
nonmember
wages
in
2019, while
in
local
go v ernments
union
wages
av eraged
30
percent more,
according
to
the
Bureau
of
Labor
St atistics. 45
Ho wev er , the
st ates
and
their
w orkforces
dif fer
in
numerous
way s
that should
be
accounted
for
in
com paring
union
and
nonunion com pensation.
Kevin
O’Brien
analyzed
police
and
ftre
depar tment
pay data
across
the
countr y ,
and
controlling
for
various
fac - tor s
he
found
that
departments
with
collectiv e
bargaining paid
about
13
percent
higher
wages. 46
In
another
study , Bahman
Bahrami,
John
Bitzan,
and
Jay
Leitch
found
that unionized
w ork er s
in
local
go v ernments
made
about 15
percent
higher
wages
than
nonunionized
w ork er s
in local
go v ernments,
while
unionized
state
w ork er s
made about
11
percent
more. 47
Sarah
Anzia
and
T err y
Moe
studied
the
ef fects
of
col - lectiv e
bargaining
on
ftre
and
police
com pensation. 48
The y found
for
the
1992
to
2010
period
that
collectiv e
bargaining increased
wages
for
ftre
depar tment
em plo yees
by
9
percent and
beneftts
by
25
percent,
while
collectiv e
bargaining
in - creased
wages
of
police
depar tment
em plo yees
by
10
percent and
beneftts
by
21
percent.
Finally ,
Thom
R eilly
and
Mark
R eed
sur v e yed
134 large
local
go v ernments
af ter
the
last
recession
to
see
ho w collectiv e
bargaining
had
af fected
go v ernment
budget gaps. 49
The y
found
that
go v ernments
with
collectiv e
bar - gaining
were
more
lik ely
to
hav e
raised
com pensation
dur - ing
the
recession
than
other
go v ernments.
Aside
from
putting
upward
pressure
on
com pensation, labor
unions
can
raise
costs
by
pushing
for
larger
staf ftng lev els,
resisting
the
introduction
of
new
technologies,
and creating
more
rule-laden
w orkplaces.
Labor
unions
are also
a
lobby
group
inside
go v ernment
pushing
for
higher spending
in
general.
In
a
2016
analy sis,
Herit age
F oundation
analy sts
us - ing
a
variety
of
st atistical
methods
found
that
st ates
that had
widespread
collectiv e
bargaining
for
state
and
local em plo yees
spend
$600
or
more
a
year
per
capit a
than
st ates that
did
not. 50
This
suggests
that
if,
say ,
N ew
Y ork
adopted N or th
Carolina’s
ban
on
collectiv e
bargaining,
it
w ould
sav e about
$10
billion
a
year ,
which
is
more
than
10
percent
of N ew
Y ork’s
general
fund
budget.
When
w ork er s
hav e
a
choice,
the y
tend
to
reject
unions, which
is
wh y
unionization
in
the
U .S.
private
sector
has plunged
from
more
than
30
percent
in
the
1950s
to
6
percent today .
In
the
public
sector ,
labor
union
shares
hav e
de - clined
in
recent
years
in
a
few
st ates,
such
as
Michigan
and Wisconsin,
that
hav e
narro wed
union
po wer s.
In
sum,
state
go v ernments
facing
budget
challenges should
reduce
costs
by
repealing
collectiv e
bargaining
in the
public
sector .
Go v ernment
w ork er s
should
be
free
to join
v oluntar y
associations
of
teacher s,
police
of ftcer s, and
other
professional
groups.
Ho wev er ,
repealing
col - lectiv e
bargaining
w ould
giv e
go v ernment
agencies
the flexibility
the y
need
to
reduce
w orkforce
spending
in
to - day’s
tough
budgeting
environment.
BUILD RAINY
D A Y
FUNDS
Economic
do wnturns
are
a
blo w
to
the
private
sector and
to
go v ernments.
As
the
sales,
proftts,
and
incomes
of businesses
and
individuals
fall,
go v ernment
t ax
rev enues are
undermined.
While
the
federal
go v ernment
can
eas - ily
increase
borro wing
when
its
t ax
rev enues
decline,
state go v ernments
operate
within
st atutor y
and
constitution - al
rules
that
require
them
to
balance
their
general
fund budgets. 51
When
a
recession
hits,
state
go v ernments
of ten need
to
rebalance
their
budgets
by
raising
t ax es
or
reduc - ing
planned
spending.
Another
option
for
st ates
during
recessions
is
to
t ap
their rain y
day
or
budget
st abilization
funds.
During
boom
year s, the
st ates
typically
sav e
a
por tion
of
incoming
t ax
rev enues
in
such
funds
to
be
available
in
a
do wnturn
or
crisis.
All the
st ates
hav e
rain y
day
funds,
but
the y
use
a
wide
variety of
rules
and
mechanisms
for
deposits
into
the
funds
and withdra wals. 52
Large
rain y
day
funds
are
viewed
fav orably
by bond
rating
agencies,
which
boosts
state
credit
ratings
and reduces
borro wing
costs. 53
Going
into
the
recession
in
2020,
rain y
day
fund
bal - ances
totaled
8.7
percent
of
annual
general
fund
spend - ing
for
the
st ates
as
a
whole,
which
is
subst antially
high - er
than
the
4.8
percent
going
into
the
last
recession
in 2008. 54
Rain y
day
funds
are
a
por tion
of
“tot al
balances,” which
are
the
accumulated
state
funds
lef t
o v er
af ter
ex - penditures.
T ot al
balances
are
a
broader
cushion
for
state budgets,
and
the y
av eraged
12.1
percent
of
annual
spend - ing
going
into
this
recession.
The
size
of
rain y
day
funds
varies
widely .
In
2020,
the y totaled
10
percent
or
more
of
annual
spending
in
20
st ates, but
the y
totaled
less
than
5
percent
in
12
st ates. 55
Among these
l...
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