案例26：东南亚融危机背后阻击手

　 案例26：东南亚汇市危机背后的狙击手

　今年7月以来，东南亚多国货币大幅贬值，而美元相对这些货币则大幅升值，每美元相对这些货币则大幅升值，每美元兑泰铢从月初的25升至月底的32，升幅近三分之一；每美元兑菲律宾比索从26.5升至28.5；印尼盾从2430升至2600；甚至一向坚挺的新元也从1.43最高升至1.47。在这场汇市危机中，各国为捍卫本国货币，动用了大量外汇储备。如马来西亚就动用了近90亿美元的储备来扶持马元；泰国传闻动用了170亿美元；菲律宾央行运用近30亿美元干预市场，使外汇储备剩下不足100亿美元；印尼则以出售美元掉期期货的方式，投入10亿美元干预市场。这次汇市动荡的剧烈，很多人将它与两年前墨西哥的比索危机相提并论。而许多东南亚国家首脑则强烈指责这场汇市危机背后的金融狙击手。

　索罗斯是幕后黑手？

　口气强硬的马亚西亚总统马哈迪尔在7月24日东盟（ASEAN）外长会议致开幕辞时指出，“东盟的经济基本因素良好，但只要有人用数十亿美元在汇市炒卖，就可以破坏我们取得的成果。”马哈迪尔矛头直指美国金融巨子索罗斯，谴责这位66岁的全球金融市场投机家，在月底东南亚的货币危机中兴风作浪。

　马哈迪尔说：“如果说联合国不将这种投机或炒作马元及其他东南亚国家货币的行为看作犯罪活动，以及采取行动对付他（索罗斯），那么所有发展中国家必定深受其害。”马哈迪尔咒骂其为“流氓”、“强盗”、“无政府主义者”，“我国不能对这个人采取什么行动，因为我们只是一个小国，如果我们是个强权国家，我们将可以利用实施在别人国度里的法律，把他引渡回来，送上法庭。”看来马哈迪对索罗斯已是恨之入骨。

　东南亚这次汇市风暴中，区内各种货币如多米诺骨牌般一一倒地，创下新低，把它与在全球货币市场进行投机游戏而闻名的大炒家索罗斯联系起来是件自然的事。人们早就对索罗斯这个名字赋予不同的联想：有人把他称为“货币危机的犯人”，也有人称为“恶魔和黑手”，却也有人称他为“慈善家”，《时代》杂志更把他列入最能影响世界的25人之列（参见本刊1996年10月号）。

　索罗斯最有名的“狙击”是1992年将英国的英镑和意大利里拉逐出欧洲汇率机制（ERM），使英国花去近77亿美元来稳定汇率。这一回合下来，索罗斯操盘的量子基金（Quantum）赚了10亿美元，从而赢得当代金融“炼金师”的称号。而1995年的墨西哥比索危机、1996年住友商社的铜期货交易，据说都有索罗斯的参与。

　这次汇市风暴联系上索罗斯，是因为他握有相当数量的东南亚各国的货币，而这次东南亚各国货币的一再贬值，是因为有人大量抛售这些货币。同时，索罗斯的基金会有一个名为“开放社会研究所”（Open Society Institute）的机构，设有“缅甸计划”，该计划通过提供经费和主办活动等方式，帮助缅甸社会的开放。索罗斯曾经一再游说泰国和马亚西亚在缅甸进一步实施民主之前。不要让缅甸加入东盟。但是泰国和马亚西亚显然没有接受索罗斯的游说。这自然就使人联想起索罗斯以制造东盟成员货币贬值进行报复。面对指责，索罗斯当即发表声明，否认为汇市风暴的幕后黑手。其发言人认为马哈迪尔的指控是没有根据和“完全不真实的”。索罗斯本人的慈善活动对索罗斯任董事长的索罗斯管理公司在东南亚的投资决策“没有影响”，该公司与索罗斯基金会“是两个完全不相干的组织，彼此独立行事。”

　抓住经济弱点狙击

　索罗斯否认他在东南亚进行货币投机，他说过去两个月内没有抛善泰铢或马元，只是在6月16日出售了一笔价值1000万美元的泰铢。他于8月3日还宣布愿与马哈迪尔会晤，以澄清误会。今年11月两人都将参加在香港举行的国际货币基金会及世界银行年会，索罗斯还将致辞。

　索罗斯表示自己从未想过以外汇炒卖达到政治目的，声称这只会引起股东不满，他的投资基金纯粹用作商业用途，以赚钱为最终目的。他声明：“东盟接纳一个集权和压制异已的政权，对该地区的繁荣与稳定是一个威胁。我的这一立场可能引起了误解。但我不认为货币投资会促进缅甸的自由事业。”

　但量子基金是一个离岸基金，注册地为荷属安的勒斯群岛，当地的法律几乎是为该基金量身订造，受特殊保护，所以量子基金的180多亿美元，资产如何分布，很难为外人查证。而据《经济学家》的报道，量子基金确实早在今年3月就以掉期方式借入大量泰铢，进行抛售，但今年5月泰国中央银行宣布泰铢不会贬值，索罗斯只好平仓。但是否全部出清就很难说了。因为泰国为捍卫泰铢，动用大量外汇储备支持汇价外，同时大幅提高利率以增加投机者的成本，官方利率从5月初的10厘跃升至38厘以上，但这些措施未能奏效，政府于7月2日被迫宣布泰铢自由浮动，随即大幅贬值。此时，像索罗斯之类的投机客就可以趁低吸纳，偿还过去的借贷，从中图利。这正是当年索罗斯狙击英镑和墨西哥比索的办法。

　“东南亚奇迹”的背后

　美国麻省理工学院（MIT）的经济学教授克曼一直认为“东亚奇迹”缺乏持久的支撑力，因为东南亚的许多国家没有完善的发展计划，“奇迹”靠的不是生产效率的提高与创新，而是低廉的劳工与资金。一方面，仍然是出口导向型的经济，依赖发达国家的市场和资金，货币虽然大多与美元挂钩，但实力远远不能与之相比，其汇率在其他发达国家货币相对美元贬值时就会变与与实际脱离；同时，他们在出口方面又与中国、印度、越南这些国家激烈竞争，由于劳工、地价等成本升高而明显处于不利地位。另一方面，它们本身也存不少问题，特别是银行系统都非常薄弱，难以适应资本全球一体化的新形势。

　金融自由化、国际化是一种普遍趋势，但法国INSEAD商学院教授Charles Wyplosz指出：“金融市场的自由化已正在改变世界，它制造出了更多的不安定，我们已由墨西哥比索危机看到，而这只是开始而已。”而国际货币基金组织（ＩＭＦ）干事M·Candesus去年已指出，下一个墨西哥危机将由银行危机引发。这一预告，果然在泰国应验。

　泰国经过近十年的经济成长被誉为亚洲第五条小龙，外资持续涌入，经济效率却没能同时提高（虽然政府大量投资于教育与培训，但还是只有不到三分之一的青少年能读完中学课程），造成泡沫成分。在80年代后期的地产狂热中，泰国的银行作了大量地产按揭，当地产市道大幅回落后，银行满身坏帐。加上近年泰国经济发展比预期差，今年贸易赤字多达100亿美元左右。其经济实力根本就不能维持泰铢这样高的汇率，政府却人为地将泰铢兑美元长期维持在26：1的水平。同时加上过度依赖海外资金，使利率持续在高水平，终于出现经济问题，引起国际投资者大举袭击。

　据《亚洲华尔街日报》今年8月1至2日报道，泰国目前的情况其实比墨西哥还差，泰国所有金融机构的贷款总额约相当于国内生产总值的140%，而墨西哥在比索危机前，只有45%。在这些贷款中泰国又有约25%的坏帐，总和相当于GDP的40%！而根据世界银行的研究，要清理这些贷款，需要花费约10%的GDP和25%的贷款。

　投机者的狙击目标

　从东南亚各国的外汇储备看都不算少，但汇率贬值似乎与外汇储备与该国M（流通货币加支票户口存款）并没有联系。如新加坡虽然最强，达392%，即外汇储备约为M1的4倍，但新元汇率今年回落5%，排名第二的泰国虽然高达220%，但也只能阻挡案罗斯之类的投机者一个多月，最后不得不大幅贬值。

　投机者所选定的狙击目标其实并不在其外汇储备，而是那些正式或非正式实施汇率干预机制的货币，因为自由浮动率已反映在市场上，那些跟其他货币挂钩，或有管理浮动（managed float）的货币都存在于干预机制，如欧洲货币联盟的上下限波幅是2.5%，这种机制便成为炒家攻击的目标，也是中央银行防御的目标，当然，国家外汇储备不足便不能抵御市场的投机力量。

　泰铢、马元、印尼盾包括新元都是一揽子货币挂钩的货币，自然容易投机者炒作，同时骨牌效应也更明显。跟美元采取联系制的港元，7月18日也曾受到外汇投机者的冲击，在伦敦挂牌的港元一度冲破7.75这一心理关口，直接控制港元结算及交收的香港金融管理局及时识破，立即在市场抽资，通过抛售短期的外汇基金票据及拆入一个月的资金，同时直接抛美元，买入港元，港元立即回稳。7月21日星期一开市后又严阵以待，抽紧银行同业流动资金，便隔夜拆息率上升至六厘二五，港元又恢复正常。投机者知难而退。

　从经济状况看，香港也表现良好，今年第三季在投资、消费活动上都将相当不俗，经济增长更可望达到5.8%，超出年初5.5%增长的预测。同时，香港的外汇储备包括土地基金在内共有800亿港元，加上中国对外储备不断稳定上升，超过1000多亿美元，港元稳如磐石。

　对比之下，人民币走势反倒非常坚挺，7月底收市报8.29。分极员认为中国受上半年出口强劲增长，出现177亿美元贸易顺差，人民币强势突破8.29的价格是迟早的，但由于央行不欲汇率升高影响出口，曾多次在此价位进行干预，该价位的心理压力已远超过技术压力，以至《亚洲华尔街日报》提倡东南亚诸国要向中国学习（7月14日）头版）。

　同时，中国目前未开放人民币自由由兑换，其外汇管理机制使国际游资难以套利，即使获利也难以通过正常交易流出。在外汇交易中心的交易对每家外资银行都有额度（虽然一般都会批准），外汇管理局非常清楚外资银行兑换人民币的情况。在外汇中心的交易，一般都是持有实盘的，所以投机活动难以得逞。

　对此之下，泰国实施金融自由化时间很短，当地外资银行不多，很多外汇交易都在离岸金融机构进行。由于太多的交易不在泰国央行监管之下，政府很难“侦察”到国际炒作的活动，因此难以抵御。

　羊群心理与与金钱之死

　经济理论界对投机者狙击货币的行为进行了大量研究，较早的模式认为，这种现象都是由于经济基本因素出现严重问题，才让投机者有机可乘，投机者的这种突袭可以看作一种合理行为，因为他们看到汇率不合理，就利用货币市场的不平衡牟利。而最近的理论模式显示，即使经济基本因素没有问题，一个国家或地区货币也可能受投机者狙击，其原因在于人们不稳定的情绪及羊群心理。

　这正是目前金融学中兴起的行为金融学，其主要假设是：部分投资者的非理性是市场有效性不能成立的主要原因。行为金融学是金融学与心理学的结合，试图通过研究投资者的心理状况来更好地了解金融市场的运作。例如1987年的全球性股灾就是由于投资者羊群心理的恐慌，使全球股票市场下跌20个百分点。

　这次汇市风暴同样有羊群心理的作用，如马来西亚的经济结构与泰国完全不同，马来西亚之所以受牵连，主要是外资对整个东南亚的投资情绪有了改变。人们担心马来西亚的银行也象泰国一样，对房地产业过度信贷，可能导致资产质量降低，坏帐日益增加，因此引起投机活动。

　同时随着科技的进步，金钱的流动变得更加有效率，现在一部电脑加十几个人就可以轻轻松松地管理分散各地数以百亿美元的投资组合，金钱变成十亿分之一秒的信号，疾如风雨，动如雷电。这就使象罗斯这样一个人的金融市场打散一个国家的货币，甚至牵动几个国家的外汇走势成为可能。只要某一货币，或某一上市企业有其薄弱的背景因素，那些被视为投资风向标的权威人物——著名的投资专家或大型基金公司，一连出货抛售，一边公开表现其看淡意图，整个投资风向便会因羊群心理而一面倒，这种全面信息的效应，完全可以成为一场新兴的经济战争模式。

　1971年8月15日，当尼克松宣布废除金本位的货币机制时，金钱其实已宣布死亡。金钱脱离了与黄金等价后，就成为没有基本价值，不受限制的一种带有抽象成份的象征财富符号。随着全球电脑网络的兴起（Internet）与全球金融自由化，在网络上游走的电了金钱，大大增加了其变动的弹性，迅速由外汇市场的外币，兑换成美元之后，马上离开汇市到股市吸纳其他优质股票，完全可以不经人手，又可以自动计算，这种死亡之后的金钱，也真的就变成幽灵一样的东西，浮游于电子世界里。

　电子金钱使每天有天文数字的金钱在投机市场转手，实物经济活动产生的价值却相形见绌。日本管理学大师大前研一估计，全球每在实物经济活动的国际贸易活动中，会有250亿美元流入国际外汇市场，但在国际货币市场转手的金额却高达8000亿美元，250亿美元只占极少一部分。全球电子经济与实物经济的比例，大概50：1，即电子经济每创造50美元价值时，实物经济才创造1美元。所以东南亚国家辛辛苦苦创立的实物经济，真的可能经受不住那些拥有全球投资影响力的投机大户的冲击。

　为此，台湾评论家王杏庆在《亚洲周刊》发表评论就问：“所谓‘全球化’，究竟是全球的更加自由平等呢？或者只不过是少数国家宰害虫他国的新理论？”他认为，国家金融自由化、全球化后已成了一个新的大海，替索罗斯这种金融“海盗”制造猎物。而且我们真的不可以想象日后超级大国可以利用这种手段，压迫对手国家，这又是一种“不战而屈人之兵”的高明战术。

　人民币自由兑换的坐标

　这次汇市风暴暴露出许多国家经济中的深层问题，也为我国人民币的自由兑换的进程与时机提供了经验与教训。

　1、建立象香港成熟的金融体系是货币开放的前提。香港外汇储备充裕，拥有健康的银行体系，稳健的经济基础，政府一直采取保守的财政政策，政府财政异常健全，这样港元汇率使有足够实力对抗外来冲击。香港金管局对付短线的投机者经验丰富，通过调控隔夜拆息的息口，以及抽紧流通资金调节机制内的头寸，就可以有力地击退短线的炒家．1995年1月墨西哥金融风暴冲击至香港时，金管局曾经抽资使头寸出现负46亿港元，头寸紧绌使隔夜拆息一度飚升至12厘，炒家终于知难而退．据闻索罗斯今年上半年就想乘香港回归投机一把港元，结果因看到香港森严的外汇管理而罢手，

　 2．货币危机发生后，一般的救市行为很难有效，1995年初的墨西哥金融危机，使世界各国明白金融体系牵一发而动全身，一国有事，其冲击力会波及全球，墨西哥风暴过后，各国央行加强联系，希望在金融市场出现危机时大家可以“同心协力”，共同对付汇市炒家，今年1月国家货币基金协议成立“新借贷安排”，由25个参与国或央行作出476亿美元的贷款保证，供各国遇到金融危机时紧急借用，加上现存的“一般借贷安排”之下的同等数量贷款保证，国际货币基金组织可以调用的应急资金将达1000亿美元．但是，东南亚汇市风暴清楚地显示，汇价波动，货币贬值完全是由于一个国家内部的经济表现疲软，或金融体系管理不善，汇价出现波动，其实国家元气大伤是病源，货币贬值只是病因，其他国家在汇市波动时，最多只能向出事国家提供流动现金(但需抵押品)，以应付短期投机者在汇市的袭击行为，但长远而言，这些国家必须重整金融市场，增加本国的竞争力，才能使汇率恢复稳定．例如菲律宾在比索贬值之后，急忙向国际货币基金取得4.3亿美元额外贷款，以前的6.5亿美元贷款也获延期；国际货币基金认为它的改革措施对头的话，9月之后还可以给予额外贷款。

　 3．汇市危机来源于发展中国家经济的结构性扭曲．哈佛大学经济系的发展经济学专家萨克斯(J·Sachs)就分析道：(1)发展中国家经济改革和金融系统自由化，引起大量追求高回报的外资涌入，使当地货币汇价攀升；汇价高企不利出口，所以这些外资大量流人非出口部门，尤其是房地产业，造成房地产泡沫现象的同时，使出口业萎靡不振．但是，外资的高回报率始终要靠强大的出口支持，故长远看，货币贬值难以避免；(2)金融市场自由化使一些松绑金融公司进行大量借贷活动，从外国取得融资贷给本地公司或个人，投入高风险的行业或项目也在所不惜，如果政府有拯救破产银行的惯例，这种高风险借贷活动更肆无忌惮；(3)发展中国家的汇率多与美元挂钩，但对美，欧、日的出口额却大致相等．当这些国家的货币近乎随美元升值之后，对欧、日的出口价却日益上升．当地有影响的金融界人士为了持续吸引资金进入，强力支持币值稳定，使偏离的汇价长期不能下调，造成最终大幅贬值的前提，我国虽然不象东南亚国家极其依赖出口，但萨克斯教授对汇市危机的分析对我国吸引外资的政策，经济降温避免泡沫成分也有参考价值。

　讨论题：

　如何评价金融市场上的投机者？它对经济的发展有无推动作用？说明理由。

　reform results, economy, and political system, and culture system, and social system, and discipline check system, and party of construction system reform solid advance, tax, and financial, and price, and administrative approval, and State-owned enterprises, and ecological civilization, important field and key link reform made major progress, market in resources configuration in the of decisive role significantly enhanced, Unprecedented burst of momentum and vitality of economic and social development. XI General Secretary's speech in this regard include the reform only when there is no complete, the < decisions of the CPC Central Committee on some major problems in deepening reform > notes on the 18 session of ideas into the party's spirit of the reforms more difficult to move forward, the increasing use of the Socialist system with Chinese characteristics such as the ability to run the country. 4. with regard to promoting sustained and healthy economic development. Face complex changeable of international situation and difficult heavy of domestic reform development stable task, XI General Secretary made China economic development into new normal of science judge, proposed innovation, and coordination, and green, and open, and shared five big development concept, implementation macro policy to stability, and industry policy to associate, and micro policy to live, and reform policy to real, and social policy to backing five big pillar sex policy, vigorously advance supply side structural reform, new concept, achieved has 2013 to 2015 during, Domestic production total annual growth 7.3%, obviously fast Yu earlier world economic 2.3% of annual growth, on world economic growth of contribution over 25%, tertiary industry accounted for domestic production total share over 50%, eventually consumption on economic growth of contribution rate reached 66%, economic structure adjustment made important progress, development of quality and benefits significantly upgrade, China economic show out huge of swing room and broad of development prospects. This aspects XI General Secretary of speech main including economic growth must is real and no water of growth improve open type economic level "see missing of hand" and "see have see of hand" are to with good speed up from elements drive, and investment scale drive development mainly to to innovation drive development mainly of change active promoted China energy production and consumption revolution,. 5. with regard to building the rule of law in China. 18 big yilai, Central tightly around full advance law ruling, put party of led, and people masters, and law ruling organic unified up, insisted law ruling, and law ruling, and law administrative common advance, insisted rule of law national, and rule of law Government, and rule of law social one construction, full advance science legislation, and strictly law enforcement, and just judicial, and universal law-abiding, China features socialist legal system further sound perfect, leaders at all levels cadres using rule of law thinking and rule of law way deepening reform, and

　reform results, economy, and political system, and culture system, and social system, and discipline check system, and party of construction system reform solid advance, tax, and financial, and price, and administrative approval, and State-owned enterprises, and ecological civilization, important field and key link reform made major progress, market in resources configuration in the of decisive role significantly enhanced, Unprecedented burst of momentum and vitality of economic and social development. XI General Secretary's speech in this regard include the reform only when there is no complete, the < decisions of the CPC Central Committee on some major problems in deepening reform > notes on the 18 session of ideas into the party's spirit of the reforms more difficult to move forward, the increasing use of the Socialist system with Chinese characteristics such as the ability to run the country. 4. with regard to promoting sustained and healthy economic development. Face complex changeable of international situation and difficult heavy of domestic reform development stable task, XI General Secretary made China economic development into new normal of science judge, proposed innovation, and coordination, and green, and open, and shared five big development concept, implementation macro policy to stability, and industry policy to associate, and micro policy to live, and reform policy to real, and social policy to backing five big pillar sex policy, vigorously advance supply side structural reform, new concept, achieved has 2013 to 2015 during, Domestic production total annual growth 7.3%, obviously fast Yu earlier world economic 2.3% of annual growth, on world economic growth of contribution over 25%, tertiary industry accounted for domestic production total share over 50%, eventually consumption on economic growth of contribution rate reached 66%, economic structure adjustment made important progress, development of quality and benefits significantly upgrade, China economic show out huge of swing room and broad of development prospects. This aspects XI General Secretary of speech main including economic growth must is real and no water of growth improve open type economic level "see missing of hand" and "see have see of hand" are to with good speed up from elements drive, and investment scale drive development mainly to to innovation drive development mainly of change active promoted China energy production and consumption revolution,. 5. with regard to building the rule of law in China. 18 big yilai, Central tightly around full advance law ruling, put party of led, and people masters, and law ruling organic unified up, insisted law ruling, and law ruling, and law administrative common advance, insisted rule of law national, and rule of law Government, and rule of law social one construction, full advance science legislation, and strictly law enforcement, and just judicial, and universal law-abiding, China features socialist legal system further sound perfect, leaders at all levels cadres using rule of law thinking and rule of law way deepening reform, and

　promoted development, and The ability to resolve conflicts and constantly improve, our ... 6. on the building of Socialist culture in China. A country, a nation strong, always supported by culture flourished, the inheritance and development of civilization, without culture to develop and prosper, there will be no realization of the dream of China. 18 big yilai, XI General Secretary around "foster and promote Socialist core values" "promote China excellent traditional culture" "firmly master ideology work led right and discourse right", aspects do has series important speech, main including put publicity thought work do have better for achieved China dream condensed powerful moral support improve national culture soft strength foster and promote Socialist core values youth to consciously practice line Socialist core values Childhood actively cultivate and practice the core values of socialism and the party's important speech on the press conference. 7. promote the reform and development of social undertakings and social management. 18 big yilai, Central insisted put guarantees and improved livelihood as ruling acting political of starting point and foothold, Xia big pneumatic solution masses most care most directly most reality of interests problem, 3 years cumulative reduction poverty more than 50 million people, equivalent to a medium national population of total, annual added town employment more than 10 million people, starts construction supportability housing engineering near 4 million sets, built world Shang scale maximum, and cover universal of basic medical guarantees network and pension guarantees network, urban and rural residents income continued growth, The lives of the people of all ethnic groups have more on both material and spiritual thriving. This aspects XI General Secretary of speech main including promoted poverty area poverty, and speed up development let 1.3 billion people enjoys better more fair of education speed up advance housing guarantees and supply system construction always put people life security put in first bit efforts put China construction became network power insisted general national security views, go China features national security road effective maintenance national security and social settled,. 8. with regard to comprehensive strictly administering the party. Party of 18 big yilai, Central station in party and national survival of height, firmly grasp strengthening party of ruling capacity construction, and advanced purity construction this article mainline, to style construction for breakthrough, to developed introduced eight items provides started start, put discipline and rules is in front, organization carried out has party of mass line education practice activities and "three strict three real" topic education, insisted "zero tolerance, and full cover, and no area", insisted "Tiger" "flies" with playing, style political wind society continued improved, More perfect system of laws within the party, discipline of authoritative seriousness increasing, for the history of winning has a lot of new features provide a strong political

　promoted development, and The ability to resolve conflicts and constantly improve, our ... 6. on the building of Socialist culture in China. A country, a nation strong, always supported by culture flourished, the inheritance and development of civilization, without culture to develop and prosper, there will be no realization of the dream of China. 18 big yilai, XI General Secretary around "foster and promote Socialist core values" "promote China excellent traditional culture" "firmly master ideology work led right and discourse right", aspects do has series important speech, main including put publicity thought work do have better for achieved China dream condensed powerful moral support improve national culture soft strength foster and promote Socialist core values youth to consciously practice line Socialist core values Childhood actively cultivate and practice the core values of socialism and the party's important speech on the press conference. 7. promote the reform and development of social undertakings and social management. 18 big yilai, Central insisted put guarantees and improved livelihood as ruling acting political of starting point and foothold, Xia big pneumatic solution masses most care most directly most reality of interests problem, 3 years cumulative reduction poverty more than 50 million people, equivalent to a medium national population of total, annual added town employment more than 10 million people, starts construction supportability housing engineering near 4 million sets, built world Shang scale maximum, and cover universal of basic medical guarantees network and pension guarantees network, urban and rural residents income continued growth, The lives of the people of all ethnic groups have more on both material and spiritual thriving. This aspects XI General Secretary of speech main including promoted poverty area poverty, and speed up development let 1.3 billion people enjoys better more fair of education speed up advance housing guarantees and supply system construction always put people life security put in first bit efforts put China construction became network power insisted general national security views, go China features national security road effective maintenance national security and social settled,. 8. with regard to comprehensive strictly administering the party. Party of 18 big yilai, Central station in party and national survival of height, firmly grasp strengthening party of ruling capacity construction, and advanced purity construction this article mainline, to style construction for breakthrough, to developed introduced eight items provides started start, put discipline and rules is in front, organization carried out has party of mass line education practice activities and "three strict three real" topic education, insisted "zero tolerance, and full cover, and no area", insisted "Tiger" "flies" with playing, style political wind society continued improved, More perfect system of laws within the party, discipline of authoritative seriousness increasing, for the history of winning has a lot of new features provide a strong political

　reform results, economy, and political system, and culture system, and social system, and discipline check system, and party of construction system reform solid advance, tax, and financial, and price, and administrative approval, and State-owned enterprises, and ecological civilization, important field and key link reform made major progress, market in resources configuration in the of decisive role significantly enhanced, Unprecedented burst of momentum and vitality of economic and social development. XI General Secretary's speech in this regard include the reform only when there is no complete, the < decisions of the CPC Central Committee on some major problems in deepening reform > notes on the 18 session of ideas into the party's spirit of the reforms more difficult to move forward, the increasing use of the Socialist system with Chinese characteristics such as the ability to run the country. 4. with regard to promoting sustained and healthy economic development. Face complex changeable of international situation and difficult heavy of domestic reform development stable task, XI General Secretary made China economic development into new normal of science judge, proposed innovation, and coordination, and green, and open, and shared five big development concept, implementation macro policy to stability, and industry policy to associate, and micro policy to live, and reform policy to real, and social policy to backing five big pillar sex policy, vigorously advance supply side structural reform, new concept, achieved has 2013 to 2015 during, Domestic production total annual growth 7.3%, obviously fast Yu earlier world economic 2.3% of annual growth, on world economic growth of contribution over 25%, tertiary industry accounted for domestic production total share over 50%, eventually consumption on economic growth of contribution rate reached 66%, economic structure adjustment made important progress, development of quality and benefits significantly upgrade, China economic show out huge of swing room and broad of development prospects. This aspects XI General Secretary of speech main including economic growth must is real and no water of growth improve open type economic level "see missing of hand" and "see have see of hand" are to with good speed up from elements drive, and investment scale drive development mainly to to innovation drive development mainly of change active promoted China energy production and consumption revolution,. 5. with regard to building the rule of law in China. 18 big yilai, Central tightly around full advance law ruling, put party of led, and people masters, and law ruling organic unified up, insisted law ruling, and law ruling, and law administrative common advance, insisted rule of law national, and rule of law Government, and rule of law social one construction, full advance science legislation, and strictly law enforcement, and just judicial, and universal law-abiding, China features socialist legal system further sound perfect, leaders at all levels cadres using rule of law thinking and rule of law way deepening reform, and

　promoted development, and The ability to resolve conflicts and constantly improve, our ... 6. on the building of Socialist culture in China. A country, a nation strong, always supported by culture flourished, the inheritance and development of civilization, without culture to develop and prosper, there will be no realization of the dream of China. 18 big yilai, XI General Secretary around "foster and promote Socialist core values" "promote China excellent traditional culture" "firmly master ideology work led right and discourse right", aspects do has series important speech, main including put publicity thought work do have better for achieved China dream condensed powerful moral support improve national culture soft strength foster and promote Socialist core values youth to consciously practice line Socialist core values Childhood actively cultivate and practice the core values of socialism and the party's important speech on the press conference. 7. promote the reform and development of social undertakings and social management. 18 big yilai, Central insisted put guarantees and improved livelihood as ruling acting political of starting point and foothold, Xia big pneumatic solution masses most care most directly most reality of interests problem, 3 years cumulative reduction poverty more than 50 million people, equivalent to a medium national population of total, annual added town employment more than 10 million people, starts construction supportability housing engineering near 4 million sets, built world Shang scale maximum, and cover universal of basic medical guarantees network and pension guarantees network, urban and rural residents income continued growth, The lives of the people of all ethnic groups have more on both material and spiritual thriving. This aspects XI General Secretary of speech main including promoted poverty area poverty, and speed up development let 1.3 billion people enjoys better more fair of education speed up advance housing guarantees and supply system construction always put people life security put in first bit efforts put China construction became network power insisted general national security views, go China features national security road effective maintenance national security and social settled,. 8. with regard to comprehensive strictly administering the party. Party of 18 big yilai, Central station in party and national survival of height, firmly grasp strengthening party of ruling capacity construction, and advanced purity construction this article mainline, to style construction for breakthrough, to developed introduced eight items provides started start, put discipline and rules is in front, organization carried out has party of mass line education practice activities and "three strict three real" topic education, insisted "zero tolerance, and full cover, and no area", insisted "Tiger" "flies" with playing, style political wind society continued improved, More perfect system of laws within the party, discipline of authoritative seriousness increasing, for the history of winning has a lot of new features provide a strong political