中国油气形势不断变化，机遇与挑战怎可不知？

　中国油气形势不断变化，机遇与挑战怎可不知？

　当前，中国油气前景仍处于不断演进中。正如页岩气给美国的油气市场带来的重要影响一样，中国的页岩气储量也将给中国的油气领域带来巨大的潜在机会。

　The Chinese oil & gas landscape is evolving, and when you juxtapose the transformative impact shale has had on the U.S. oil & gas market with the shale prospects in China, it’s difficult to overstate the potential opportunities related to shale in China. 如果将页岩气看作未来中国油气市场增长的最大潜在机遇，也许推进这种增长的最大挑战将是能否克服中国湖向页岩气开采等的技术难题。对于页岩气从业者而言，不完善的基础设施、不健全的法律体系以及复杂的地形也将成为与页岩气开发和生产息息相关的重大挑战。

　If it’s fair to consider shale as the biggest potential for future oil & gas industry growth in China, perhaps the greatest challenge to that growth is overcoming the technical difficulties associated with China’s lacustrine (lake) shale reservoirs. Other significant challenges facing shale players would include limited infrastructure and legal systems that do not easily accommodate shale development and production, as well as some truly daunting terrain. 而且，我们也可以看到中国国家油气公司在策略上的转变，这些都将影响到未来区域的交易格局。为了应对国内国际的多方压力，我们已经观察到中国国家油气公司的以下几个关键转变：

　We are also witnessing a transformation in the strategic approach of China’s NOCs, which will impact future deal-flow in

　the region. In response to various domestic and international pressures, we have observed several key changes in the NOC approach:  日益重视运营活动以及现有资产的“消化” an increased focus on operational activities and ‘digestion’ of existing assets

　 参与国家强制的剥离以及重组行动 participation in state-mandated divestments and restructurings  在国际和国内项目领域，增加与独立油气公司在高风险、非常规项目上的合作 increase in joint ventures with International Oil Companies (IOCs) on higher-risk, often unconventional projects – both internationally and for domestic projects

　 与国际公司进行资产交易，以实现投资多样化和交易成本最小化 participation in asset swaps with IOCs – to both diversify portfolios and minimise transaction costs  增加油气相关的基础建设投资（包括管道和液化天然气）

　increasing investment in gas-related infrastructure (both pipeline and LNG)  发展全球油气贸易能力 development of global oil & gas trading capabilities. 市场参与者将何去何从？So where to from here?

　据预测，到 2035 年中国将取代美国成为全球最大的液燃气消费国。因此，长远来看，中国油气消费基数仍然十分巨大。

　With China projected to replace the United States as the world’s largest consumer of liquid fuels by 2035, the long-term fundamentals remain strong. 可以预料，中国国家石油公司将会继续寻找并购机会，尤其是伴随着壳牌和邦吉的合并，全球众多油气巨头纷纷寻找交易机会，如果国家石油公司想要在与国际油气公司的竞争中保持竞争力，他们会继续在市场上保持活跃态势。

　It is expected that Chinese NOCs will continue to seek M&A opportunities, especially if they are to remain competitive with IOCs pursuing deals in the wake of the Shell-BG merger. 中石油、中石化以及中海油都公开表明他们正在考虑全球并购事宜。当然并购对象的选择将会是重中之重，而且三桶油或是其他的国有油气公司进行的任何并购活动都将与广泛的战略性商业目标紧密相连。不久，我们就会看到这些公司原有的单纯获得存储量的交易模式将会终结。近期我们也不太可能会看到像过去十年中出现的那种巨型交易。

　Similarly CNPC, Sinopec and CNOOC have publicly indicated that they are considering global M&A. However it is clear that there will be greater selectivity. Any M&A activity undertaken by the Three Barrels or other Chinese SOEs will be closely aligned to broader strategic business objectives. No longer will we see companies acquiring reserves as an end in itself. It is also unlikely that we will see a return, any time soon, to the mega-deals of the past decade. 在中国市场，私营公司（中国私营公司以及国际私营公司）正日益扮演着重要的角色（从上游常规以及非常规油气的开采到下游油气产品的购买以及进口），是否具有构建以及运营联盟的能力，将成为众多私有公司发展的至关重要的战略分水岭。

　Within China, private companies (Chinese and international) are now playing a greater role in the Chinese market (from upstream exploration of conventional and unconventional plays to direct downstream purchase/importation of oil & gas products), and the ability to form and manage viable alliances will become a key strategic differentiator. 中国油气领域法律法规的发展，也为跨国公司的投资打开了大门。值得一提的是，今年 4 月份国务院颁布了新的《外商投资指导产业目录》，对影响油气行业的一些投资目录做出了修改。从本质上来看，该目录为外国投资者展现了不同工业领域的投资重点。这些改革消除了提高石油采收率技术以及物理勘探等油气领域中只能以中外合资形式从业的条件限制。据此，在这些领域中，如果外商投资者有投资意愿，可以以外商独资的形式参与到行业中来。目录的变化区分了常规以及非常规油气勘探之间的不同。在过去，常规油气与非常规油气的勘探、开采等一系列活动会在复杂多变的地理环境中重叠，而现在目录中的区分将有助于避免前述问题的出现。

　Legal developments in the sector have also opened up investment opportunities for international companies in China. Most notably, in April this year changes were made to the Catalogue of Industries for Guiding Foreign Investment which revises some investment categories affecting the oil & gas sector. Essentially, the Catalogue provides guidance to foreign investors on investments in different industries. The changes resulted in a lifting of the joint venture restrictions on foreign investments involving enhanced oil recovery technology, geophysical prospecting and well drilling and services. Foreign investors in these sectors may, if desired, now invest by way of wholly foreign-owned enterprises. The changes to the Catalogue also clarified the distinctions between conventional and unconventional oil & gas. Such clarifications are helpful in

　avoiding issues that might otherwise have arisen over the implementation of conventional oil & gas and unconventional oil & gas projects that overlapped in fields with complex, unclear or variable geology. 最终，在中国油气市场，我们也正在见证一系列令人兴奋的新进弄潮儿，从私募公司，到商品贸易，从外国专家服务公司到中国私有以及综合企业。

　Finally, we are also witnessing a range of exciting new entrants into the Chinese oil & gas markets – ranging from private equity firms to commodities traders, and from foreign specialist services companies to Chinese privates and conglomerates. 一方面，市场的竞争日渐白热化，另一方面，市场各项规则也日臻成熟。尽管目前市场呈现低迷态势，但对那些灵活且富于策略和创新的企业，市场机遇仍然前景广阔。

　While the market will become increasingly competitive, it will also become increasingly sophisticated. Notwithstanding the recent slowdown, significant opportunities exist for those players who are agile in their strategic approach and innovate.