如何规划疫情后世界
来源：税务师 发布时间：2020-10-24 点击：
Ex ecutiv e Summary
The
CO VID-19
virus
is
sw eeping
acr os s the
w orld,
l eaving
a
tr ail
of
ec onomic
and social
damage in
its
wak e.
F orwar d
thinking or ganizations ar e
s t arting to
plan
f or
a
pos t- CO VID-19
w orld.
Ho w e v er,
pr edicting
what this
w orld
will
l ook
lik e
is
not
easy .
W e
c an be
r easonabl y
sur e
that
the
w orld
will
not simpl y
r e v ert
back
to
the
way
it was bef or e
the crisis,
but
what
will
be
diff er ent? The
pr oblem with
answ ering
this
ques tion
is
that
r ec ent his tory
does not
pr ovide
us
with
any
points of r ef er enc e
to
l earn
fr om.
The
w orld
has
simpl y ne v er
f ac ed
a
crisis
lik e
this
one
bef or e.
And y et,
whil e
it may
not
be
pos sibl e
to
pr edict the pos t
CO VID-19
landsc ape,
it is
s till
pos sibl e
to plan
f or
it.
Sc enario planning is
a
t ool designed to
help or ganizations plan
f or
uncert ain futures. It
has been
used e xt ensiv el y
by
or ganizations whose perf ormanc e
is
vulner abl e
to
major ec onomic, social,
politic al,
and
envir onment al
shifts, such
as
the
oil
and
gas
indus try .
CO VID-19 has
plac ed
all
sector s
within
this
c ont e xt
of uncert ainty,
r equiring them to
think and
plan in
ne w
ways.
Sc enarios
do
not
att empt to
pr edict the
futur e, but
r ather
identify
a
set
of
pos sibl e
futur e s t at es.
The y
f ocus
on
the
e xt ernal
driving f or c es
o v er
which
individual
or ganizations hav e
littl e
or
no
c ontrol. Sc enarios
ar e
both plausibl e
and
chall enging.
Or ganizations benefit
fr om
sc enario
planning
by
imagining ho w
the y
might
c ompete
in
each
sc enario. This pr oc es s
helps
them widen
their
thinking ar ound
pos sibl e
r esponses
and
out c omes. F or e xampl e,
some
r esponses
may
not
hav e
been c onsider ed
if the
sc enario planning pr oc es s hadn’t
been
f oll o w ed.
Other
r esponses become cl ear er
and
mor e
obvious
as
the y
ar e identified
acr os s
multipl e
scenarios.
In
this
r eport,
w e
hav e
cr eat ed
a
set
of
plausibl e sc enarios
f or
the
w orld
aft er
CO VID-19, and
pr ovided
guidelines
f or
ho w
these sc enarios
c an be
used in
a
w orkshop
f ormat to
help
pr epar e
f or
a
v ery
uncert ain
futur e. Sc enario
planning
w orkshops
ar e
r el e v ant f or
or ganizations wishing to
de v el op
pr oactiv e s tr at egies f or
dealing with
the
pandemic.
F act or s
influencing
a
pos t-C O VID - 19 futur e
Among
the
many
f act or s
impacting
the
pos t-C O VID-19
landsc ape,
w e
hav e
identified
thr ee
that,
in
our
opinion,
will cr eat e
the
gr eat es t
impact
and
unc ert aint y .
SCENARIO PLANNING
F OR
A
POST -CO VID- 19
W ORLD
F AC T O R
1:
VIRUS
L ONGEVIT Y
Ho w
l ong
bef or e
vir al
inf ections
and
deaths
sl o w do wn
t o
the point wher e
isolation policies c an
be lift ed?
F A CTO R
2 :
GL OB AL
MINDSET
Ho w
will
peopl e’ s
vie ws
of
social,
ec onomic,
and political
boundaries
be
impact ed
by
the virus?
F AC T O R
3:
DIGIT AL
ADOP TION
Ho w
will
c onsumer s
r eact
t o
digital
t ools
and t echnol ogies
that
hav e
emer ged
because
of
the virus?
Virus
Longe vity
Ho w
l ong
bef or e
vir al
inf ections
and
deaths
sl o w
do wn
t o
the
point
wher e
isolation
policies c an
be
lift ed?
Short-t erm
Impact
One
pot ential
out c ome is
that
the
spr ead
of CO VID-19
f oll o ws a
similar
patt ern
to
China, Japan,
and
South
Kor ea
wher e
the
virus r eaches
its
peak quickl y,
but
also
dis sipat es quickl y .
Whil e
the
virus
does not
disappear, the mas sive
scal e
of
inf ections
and
deaths f ades away
in
a
f e w
months. Aft er
se v er e
disruption in
Q1
2020,
many
parts
of
the
w orld
ar e
r eady to
r eopen
their
bor der s
and
r eturn to
a
ne w normal.
A
mas sive
gl obal
eff ort
to
de v el op pr e v ent ativ e
measur es,
such
as
v ac cines, and tr eatment options r esults
in
multipl e
options to
r educ e
the
impact
and
spr ead
of
the
virus. Many
c ountries
in
Eas t
and
South-Eas t
Asia r elax
isolation
r equir ements,
busines ses r es t art,
and
bor der s
r eopen
by
the
end
of May
2020.
Mos t
of
Eur ope
r eopens
by
the end
of
June, including
a
full
r eins t at ement of unrestrict ed
tr av el
within
the
Schengen ar ea. North
Americ a
c omes
back
online
by
Labour Day .
Some pock ets
of
CO VID-19
r emain in
the de v el oping
w orld
thr ough
the
end
of
Q3,
but almos t
all
CO VID-19
r estrictions
ar e
lift ed gl oball y
by
the
beginning
of
Q4
2020.
Long-t erm
Impact
Another out c ome sees
CO VID-19
linger
acr os s the
w orld
f or
at
l eas t
a
y ea r .
The
att empt by many
c ountries
t o
‘flatt en
the
curv e’
f ails,
and inf ections
and
deaths
c ontinue
to
gr o w
and spr ead
unabat ed.
Whil e
the
de v el oped
w orld s truggl es
to
maintain c ontr ol
of
the
virus, the de v el oping
w orld
is
o v errun
with
inf ections and
deaths.
A mut ated
v er sion
of
the
virus
that was
fir s t
identified
in
Br azil
sho ws
r esis t anc e to
ne wl y
de v el oped
tr eatments.
Despit e
a mas siv e
mobilization
of
scientific
r esour c es, earl y
v accines
f ail
to
pr e v ent
the
virus. Countries
that
surviv ed
the
initial
wav e
of inf ection,
lik e
China, South Kor ea
and
Japan, see
a
sec ond
wav e
of
the
mut ated
virus
appear that
is
e v en
mor e
deadl y
than
the
fir s t.
Bor der s and
non-essential
busines ses
r emain cl osed acr os s
mos t
of
the
w orld. In
this
out c ome,
the gl obal
l ock do wn
r emains
until at
l eas t
the
fir s t quart er
of
2021.
SCENARIO PLANNING
F OR
A
POST -CO VID- 19
W ORLD
The
virus
dis sipat es
within
a f e w months and isolation
policies
ar e
lift ed quickl y
Inf ections
and deaths
c ontinue
f or
at l eas t
a y ear and isolation
policies
r emain
in
plac e
indefinit el y
SHOR T - TERM
IMP AC T
L ONG- TERM
IMP AC T
Ho w
will
peopl e ’ s
vie ws
of
social,
ec onomic,
and
political boundaries
be
impact ed
by
the
virus?
Gl obal
Ac c ept ance
In
one
out c ome,
the
gl obalization
of
tr ade and
tr av el
picks
up
unabat ed
onc e
the immediat e
eff ects
of
the
virus
subside. The CO VID-19
c oor dination
chall enges
betw een nations
and
r egions
point
to
a
need
f or cl oser
gl obal alignment. Many
peopl e
r ealize that
if
information,
know-ho w,
and
critic al infrastructur e,
lik e
medic al
equipment,
had been
shar ed
earlier
and
mor e
eff ectiv el y,
f ar f e w er
peopl e
w ould hav e
died
acr os s
the
w orld. This
r ealization
l eads
to
the
es t ablishment of
s tr onger gl obal ins titutions to
pursue
the gl obal ‘c ommon good’.
Gl obal suppl y
chains ar e
r e-s t art ed
and
tr ade
r out es
ar e
quickl y r e-es t ablished.
Ne w
tr ade
deals
betw een c ountries
and
r egions ar e
quickl y
negotiat ed and
r atified.
With
barrier s
being
l o w er ed
and bor der
c ontr ols
w eak ened,
peopl e
f eel
fr ee to
tr av el
and
liv e
in
other parts
of
the
w orld. T r av el
is
cus t omary,
and
e v en
though
virus br eak-outs
oc cur,
ther e
is
enough
medic al c apacity
to
identify
and
c ont ain episodes, and to
enabl e
individuals r ec o v er
quickl y
no
matt er wher e
the y
tr av el
t o.
CO VID-19
is
seen
as
a harbinger
of
cl oser
gl obal social,
ec onomic, and
envir onment al
c ooper ation.
Gl obal
R ejection
In
another out c ome,
the
fr agment ed
r esponse to
CO VID-19
and
the
f ailur e
to
s top
the
virus ’ spr ead
l ead
to
a
deep
dis trus t
among diff er ent parts
of
the
w orld.
A
multi-national
‘blame game’
is
ignit ed
as
c ountries
att empt to
shift the
r esponsibility f or
the
inf ections
and
deaths to
someone
else.
When
bor der s
do
r eopen, the y
ar e
l es s
fr ee
than
bef or e.
Dis trus t
of
China, the
US,
and
Russia
deepens
gl oball y,
and each withdraws partiall y
int o
its
own
bor der s, l eaving
a
gl obal l eader ship
v acuum. Regional allianc es,
lik e
the
EU
and
ASEAN
s t art
to w eak en
and
fr agment.
P eopl e
ar e
shock ed
by the
oppr es sive
r eaction to
the
virus
in
some c ountries,
and
become
l es s
c omfort abl e living and
w orking
abr oad.
Nationalism
gr o ws acr os s
the
w orld
as
c ountries
r ealize
that gl obalization
has
made
them
def enc el es s agains t
a
gl obal pandemic lik e
CO VID-19.
Gl obal
Mindset SCENARIO PLANNING
F OR
A
POST -CO VID- 19
W ORLD
9
P eopl e
see
the
v alue
of a gl obal
r esponse
t o
the
virus and seek
t o
incr ease
c oor dination
acr os s
the
w orl d
P eopl e
become
deepl y
sk eptic al
and dis trus tful
of other
countries
and r etr eat t o
a mor e
f amiliar
and l oc al
wa y
of living
GL OB AL AC CEP T ANCE
GL OB AL
RE JEC TION
Digit al
Adoption
Ho w
will
c onsumer s
r eact
t o
digit al
t ools
and
t echnol ogies
that
hav e
emer ged
because
of
the
virus?
Digit al
Ac c el er ation
In
one
out c ome,
CO VID-19
initiat es
a
sur ge in
the
de v el opment
and
usage of
ne w
digit al t echnol ogies.
The
r equir ement
to
w ork
and socialize
via
t echnol ogy
pulls
t echnol ogy sk eptics
and
luddit es
int o
the
information age.
Video
c onf er encing
solutions
become mains tr eam f or
w ork
and
pl easur e.
Softwar e v endor s
mak e
sur e
that
all
pr ogr ams
and apps w ork
at
any
time,
fr om anywher e.
With r estrictions
on
physic al
c ol oc ation,
ne w
f orms of
ent ert ainment
ar e
de v el oped
that
ar e c ompl et el y
t echnol ogy-mediat ed.
Physic al r estrictions
e v erywhere
ar e
c ompensat ed
in part
by
ne w
adv anc es
in
digit al
t echnol ogy . De v el oping
c ountries
get
ac c es s
to
cheaper smart
devic es
and
infrastructur e,
so
that peopl e
acr os s
the
w orld
become ac cus t omed to
living,
w orking,
and
socializing
with t echnol ogy .
Digit al
Sk epticism
In
another out c ome,
the
push to
use
digit al t echnol ogies
mor e
and
mor e
f or
living
and w orking
l eads to
a
backlash.
F or
c orpor at e- type
w ork
wher e
inv es tments
c an
be
made in
r eliability,
the
t echnol ogy
does
enabl e pr oductivity .
Ho w e v er,
f or
“hav e
nots”
or in
per sonal
use,
ther e
is
deep
sk epticism of
surv eillanc e,
c ontr ol,
and
ultimat el y
a fundament al
mis trus t
of
the
mos t
pr oductiv e digit al
t ools
by
c onsumer s
and
civic society at
lar ge.
Ther e
is
c onsider abl e
activism
to l obby
f or
l es s
intrusion, but
it’ s
uncl ear
ho w the
hold
of
the
monopolis tic
c ompanies that
c ontr ol
k e y
digit al
t echnol ogies
c an
be r educ ed.
Surv eillanc e
measures
impl ement ed by
go v ernments
and
lar ge
c orpor ations to
k eep
tr ack
of
the
virus
l ead
to
a
deep mis trus t
of
t echnol ogy .
P eopl e
s till
use
digit al t echnol ogies,
but
begin
to
r esent the
intrusion that
the y
plac e
on
their
liv es,
whil e
c alls
f or priv acy
rights
and
the
fr eedom
to
be
‘l eft al one’ become l oude r .
SCENARIO PLANNING
F OR
A
POST -CO VID- 19
W ORLD
11
The
virus
initiat es
a w av e
of inno v ation and adoption of ne w digit al
t echnol ogies
Digit al
sk epticism
set s
in
and peopl e turn
awa y
fr om
digit al
t echnol ogies
DIGIT AL AC CELERA TION
DIGIT AL SKEP TICISM
What
will
the
pos t-C O VID - 19
futur e
l ook lik e?
The
int erpla y
of
the
thr ee
f act or s
w e
sel ect ed
–
vir al l onge vit y ,
gl obal
mindset
and
digit al
adoption
–
c an
l ead t o
r emark abl y
differ ent
futur e
w orl ds.
Among
the
pos sibl e w orl ds
emer ging
fr om
the
c ombination of
the
thr ee f act or s,
w e
de v el oped
f our
sc enarios that
chall enge
our thinking,
ques tion
our
as sumptions, and
help us
think br oadl y
about
the
futur e.
The
choic e
w as
based
on
an att empt
t o
pr ovide
plausibl e,
no v el,
y et
div er gent vie ws
on ho w
the
pos t-C O VID - 19
w orl d
might
l ook,
r ather
than
on ho w
pr obabl e
each
sc enario might
be.
Gl obal
Mark etplac e
•
Short-t erm
virus
l onge vity
•
Gl obal ac c ept anc e
•
Digit al
ac c el er ation
Back
t o
Basics
•
Long-t erm
virus
l onge vity
•
Gl obal r ejection
•
Digit al
sk epticism
Digit al
Reset
•
Long-t erm
vir al
l onge vity
•
Gl obal ac c ept anc e
•
Digit al
sk epticism
W all ed Gar dens
•
Short-t erm
virus
l onge vity
•
Gl obal r ejection
•
Digit al
ac c el er ation
SCENARIO PLANNING
F OR
A
POST -CO VID- 19
W ORLD
13
Digit al
Adoption
DIGIT AL AC CELERA TION
DIGIT AL SKEP TICISM
SHOR T TERM
GL OB AL RE JEC TION
L ONG TERM
GL OB AL AC CEP T ANCE
Virus
Longe vity
Gl obal
Mindes t
Sc enario c omparison &
implic ations F our
sc enarios t o
chall enge
y our
s tr at egy
and
r esponse
t o
C O VID-19
change
W e
hav e
e xpl or ed
pos sibl e
div er gent
futur es
to
c ompr ehend
ho w
the
pos t-CO VID-19
w orld might l ook.
SCENARIO PLANNING
F OR
A
POST -CO VID- 19
W ORLD
Gl obal
Mark etplac e
•
Short-term
virus
l onge vity
•
Gl obal ac c ept anc e
•
Digit al
ac cel er ation
•
Long-term
vir al
l onge vity
•
Gl obal ac cel er ation
•
Digit al
sk epticism
•
Long-term
virus
l onge vity
•
Gl obal r ejection
•
Digit al
sk epticism
•
Short-term
virus
l onge vity
•
Gl obal r ejection
•
Digit al
ac cel er ation
• In
this
sc enario, the
w orld
quickl y
mo v es
on
fr om the
CO VID-19 pandemic. P eopl e
r ealize
that
the
virus
was jus t
a
t empor ary
health e v ent,
with
no
deeper ec onomic, politic al, or
social
r oots.
Ther e
is
a gener al
sense
of
the
importanc e
of
‘getting back
to
busines s ’.
Ther ef or e, bor der s
r eopen
and
tr ade
r esumes
as
bef or e.
Widespr ead
usage of digit al
t echnol ogies during the
crisis
l eads to
a
ne w
wav e
of
digit al inno v ation.
This digit al
r enais sanc e
does not
jus t
oc cur
in
Silic on
V all e y, but
acr os s
the
w orld. As
bor der s
open
and
tr ade
barrier s
ar e
r emo v ed, peopl e
s t art
to
liv e
and
w ork
mor e
in
other c ountries.
Digit al
Reset
• In
this
sc enario, inf ections
and
deaths fr om the
virus
f ail
to
dis sipat e. National
go v ernments
r ealize
that
unilat er al
r esponses
ar e
f ailing, so a
mas sive
multilat er al
eff ort is
undert ak en
to
sl o w
down
the
spr ead of
the
virus. Aft er
some
time
and
eff ort,
pr ogr es s
is
made,
and
a
lar ge
part of
the
suc c es s
is
cr edit ed
to
the
gl oball y
c oor dinat ed
r esponse. As soon as
tr av el
r estrictions
ar e
lift ed,
peopl e
s t art
to
mo v e
again,
t ourism picks
up
quickl y,
and
gl obal suppl y
chains
ar e
r eopened.
At
the
same time,
peopl e
s t art
to
r ealize
that
the
pandemic, e v en
though
it was r esponsibl e
f or
many
thousands of
deaths,
was made much
w orse
due t o
the
c onst ant
flo w
of
sensationalized
misinf ormation.
Ther ef or e,
many peopl e
r estrict
their
e xposur e
to
digit al
media and
gener all y
r etr eat
fr om an o v er-e xposur e
to
digit al
t echnol ogies.
Back
t o
Basics
• In
this
sc enario, CO VID-19
inf ections
and
deaths f ail
to
sl o w
do wn,
e v en aft er
the
so-c all ed
flatt ening
of
the
curv e.
P eopl e
bec ome
dis trus tful and
sk eptic al
about
thr eats fr om outside their
immediat e
envir onments. T ourism
f ails
to
r eignit e,
as
peopl e
choose to
tr av el
cl ose to
home,
and gl obal suppl y
chains
ar e
dismantl ed
to
av oid
vulner abilities
to
futur e shocks.
P eopl e
become deepl y
suspicious
of
peopl e
and
pr oducts fr om other parts
of
the
w orld. Digit al
t echnol ogies become too
inv asive
and perv asive
f or
many
peopl e,
and
thus
the y
oft en
disengage.
Ev en
y oung peopl e
r etr eat
fr om the
c ons t ancy
of
being
online.
W all ed Gar dens
• In
this
sc enario, the
virus
dis sipat es
quickl y,
so
the
immediat e
thr eat of
infection and
death
disappear s
in
mos t
parts
of
the
w orld. Ho w e v er, lingering
suspicions
r emain about
the
danger s
of
pandemics
fr om f or eign lands.
The
inv oc ation
of
the
Def ense
Pr oduction
Act in
the
US, and
similar
l egislation
else wher e
that
prioritized
national int er ests
during
the
height
of
the
virus
outbr eak
l eads
t o
a
l oc al-fir s t,
isolationis t ment ality .
Nations
prioritize
themsel v es
o v er
the
gl obal c oll ectiv e
good. National
patriotism
gr o ws al ong
with
pres sur e
to
limit
immigr ation.
T ourism
f ails
to
pick
up
as
many
f or eign des tinations l ose their
allur e and
l oc al
trips
and
e v ents become mor e
popula r .
T echnol ogy
r emains perv asive
but
peopl e
become l es s
int er es t ed
in
gl obal themes
and c el ebrities. Loc al
v er sions
of
gl obal apps and
softwar e
pr oducts mak e gains
agains t
the
digit al
giants.
Gl obal Mark etplac e
Digit al Reset
Back
t o Basics
W all ed Gar dens
Quick r eturn t o gl obal geopolitic al
s tability,
opennes s
and int ernational
c ooper ation.
Harmonization of
tr ade and
engagement
rul es
on many
t opics:
dat a
fl o ws, cyber
security, Int ernet go v ernanc e.
Str ong
push f or multilater al
c ooper ation.
Harmonization of
tr ade and
engagement
rul es on
many
t opics, including guidelines
on
r esponsibl e and
ethic al
use
of
digit al
t echnol ogies and inf ormation
flo ws.
Uns t abl e
geopolitic al environment, pr ot ectionism
t ak es
o v er: s t agnant
gr owth.
Lack
of
int ernational harmonization in
priv acy s t andar ds
and
digit al go v ernanc e.
Societies
tr end
t o war ds nationalism,
isolationism, and
pr ot ectionism
Str ong
go v ernment int erv ention
t o
support l oc al
ec onomies. Loc al
digit al
giants r educ e the
po w er
of
gl obal play er s.
Vibrant
and
highl y c ompetitiv e
busines s landsc ape
with
small and
lar ge
c ompanies c ompeting fr om within and
outside r ef er enc e industries.
Digit al
busines s
models unf old
their
full
v alue. High r at es
of
c orpor at e mort ality .
Digit al
disruptor s
ar e chall enged
by
c onsumer s ’ lack
of
trus t
in
online servic es. Small
and
lar ge c ompanies t eam t ogether in
c onsortia t o
off er digit all y
secur ed
servic es thr ough
platf orms.
Int ense
c ompetition acr os s c onsortiums.
Lar ge
r egional c ompanies dominat e
the
landsc ape.
Mark ets
c onsolidat e
within industries.
Digit al
busines s
models l ose their
s tr engths in t erms
of
e xperienc e
and platf orm
v alue. The
t ech bubbl e
bur s ts.
Multinational
c ompanies become r egional. Gl obal tr ade
shrinks bec ause
of
pr ot ectionism. Some l oc al
and
r egional mark ets
thriv e,
whil e other s
suff er .
Suc c es sful
c ompanies ent er
mark et
adjac encies t o
k eep
up
gr owth.
Business-friendl y r egulation f av oring indus try
c onv er genc e: fi nanc e
&
tel ec om
& e-c ommer c e;
ener gy &
aut omotive;
pos t
& e-c ommer c e.
Business-friendl y r egulation f av oring indus try
c onv er genc e: fi nanc e
&
tel ec om
& e-c ommer c e;
ener gy &
aut omotive;
pos t
& e-c ommer c e.
Regulation hindering indus try
c onv er genc e. Gl obal giants ar e
impact ed and
pr ot ect ed.
Go v ernments
enact laws
t o
pr ot ect peopl e fr om poor ethic al
digit al practic es. Business-friendl y
l oc al and
r egional r egulation f av oring indus try c onv er genc e:
fi nanc e
& tel ec om
&
e-c ommer c e; ener gy
&
aut omotive;
pos t &
e-c ommer c e.
Asia
emerges
as
the
main gl obal driv er
of
inno v ation.
Ne w
inno v ations scal e quickl y
acr os s
the
gl obe.
Digit al
inno v ation
expands fr om base in
US
t o
gl obal.
Asia
emerges
as
the
main gl obal driv er
of
pr oduct and
busines s
inno v ation.
Digit al
inno v ation
sl o w- down
due
t o
c onsumer/ c ompany
disengagement. Digit al
inno v ation c ontinues t o
be
driven by
a
small
set
of
lar ge monopolistic
t ech c ompanies. Security t ak es
off .
Inno v ation
c ontinues but
at l oc al
and
r egional l e v els. Diff er enc es
among r egions become mor e
pr onounc ed.
Consumers/c ompanies hav e
a
digit al
al ways-on appr oach.
P er sonalized
pr oducts e xpand
at
the
expense
of priv acy
&
security.
Consumer s
ar e disillusioned
by
digital: c os ts
of
being
online
ar e higher
than
bene fi ts.
Consumers/c ompanies v alue
priv acy
and
security fi rst :
• The y
want
c ontrol
& o wner ship
of
their
dat a.
• T rus t
in
a
v endor is the
k e y
v alue
in
the
purchasing
pr oc es s. Consumer s
ar e
awar e
of the
priv acy
and
security c os ts
of
being
digit al, and r eluctantl y
bear these risks.
Consumers/c ompanies hav e
limit ed
l e v er age o v er
the
dat a
that
is
being c oll ect ed
about
them whene v er
the y
ar e
online. T rus t
in
t echnol ogy pr o vider s
that
guar antee priv acy
and
security is
highl y
v alued by c onsumers/c ompanies. Consumers/c ompanies hav e
a
digit al
al ways-on appr oach.
P er sonalized
pr oducts e xpand
at
the
expense
of priv acy
&
security.
Shift away
fr om gl obal br ands lik e
Googl e,
Nes tlé, Nik e,
Amazon,
t o
mor e l oc al
and
r egional br ands.
Consumer engagement Inno v ation tr ends
Mark et r egulation
Busines s landsc ape Gl obal envir onment
Ho w
t o
use
the
sc enarios The
int erpla y
of
these
f act or s
l eads
t o
differ ent
futur es,
depending
on
ho w
the
chosen
f act or s
pla y
out. Among se v eral
pos sibl e
c ombinations, w e
hav e
e xpl or ed
f ou r .
W e
hav e
de v el oped
these sc enarios
to
pr ovide or ganizations with
a
t oolkit
to
under s t and
the c ompl e x
landsc ape
surr ounding
them.
The sc enarios
ar e
int ended
to
r aise
ques tions; chall enge
thinking
and
help
decision m a k e r s
t es t
their
s tr at egy
and
underl ying as sumptions.
By
placing
their
o wn
or ganization
in
each
of the
depict ed
sc enarios,
busines s
l eader s c an
as ses s
thr eats
and
opportunities,
r aise awar enes s
of
the
envir onment and
f os t er
the or ganization’ s
busines s
agility
in
navigating today’ s
uncert ainty .
W e
r ec ommend
the
f oll o wing
approach to
using
the
sc enarios.
Sc enario
planning ses sions
w ork
bes t
with
t eams
so
that
multipl e sc enarios
c an be
as ses sed
and
debat ed.
1. All
t eam member s
should
be
f amiliar
with the
f act or s
and
sc enarios
in
adv anc e
of the
ses sion
2. The
f acilit at or
walks
thr ough
the
thr ee f act or s
-
virus
l onge vity,
gl obal mindset, and
digit al
adoption
-
paying
particular att ention
to
the
‘e xtr eme’
end-points
3. The
f acilit at or
then
pr esents
the
f our sc enarios
-
gl obal
mark etplac e,
digit al r eset,
back
to
basics,
and
wall ed
gar dens
4. T eams
ar e
as signed
one
sc enario
and ask ed
to
br eak
out
and
discus s
the or ganization’ s
s tr at egy
giv en
the
as signed sc enario
5. Upon
r eturn,
each
t eam
pr esents
their sc enario s tr at egy,
which is
then
discus sed within
the
gr oup
6. The
gr oup
builds
on
the
s tr engths
and w eaknes ses
of
each
pr esent ed
s tr at egy to
cr eate
one
c onsolidat ed
approach
to managing in
a
pos t-CO VID- 19
w orld
Mak e
sur e
y ou
ar e
pr epar ed f or
the
“ne w
norma l ”
R EAL
LE ARNING.
R EAL
IMPAC T
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